The Research On The Chinese Electricity Structure And Its Market Risk Measurement

With the global ecological environment to be worsened, development of low carbon economy has become the consensus of all. In China, it regards the thermal power as the main structure of power source and the industry consumption as the main structure of electric power consumption, which bring great environment pressure and electric power market risk pressure for the development of power industry. Adjusting and improve the power structure, raising the electricaiton level and energy share of total final energy consumption, and strengthen the electricity market risk measurement methods is an important measure of ease the pressure on the environment pressure and power market risk, and also is an effective way to develop the electricity market. In this paper, we study Chinese electricity market from the structure of electrical power and electricity market risk measurement. The main content of the paper are as follows:We define the electric power structure of the electric market in this paper. From electricity commodity and electricity market, we analyze risk characteristics of electricity market. We use panel data and respectively study power market's power structure and industry consumption structure. Its key work includes three aspects: 1) we research the structure of the China power source's the whole characters, through the comprehensive data information of the time-series data and the cross-section data. 2) Using cointegration analysis and Hsiao's granger causality test the relationships between the thermal power, hydropower, nuclear and the national economy, and analyze the special characters on the power source structure. The research results show that between three types of power and economic development exist long-run equilibrium and same direction's relation. But between single power source and economic development isn't exist cointegration relation. Nuclear power isn't economic growth's Granger cause, and other variables are mutual granger causality. After the above analysis, we use technology of variance decomposition to research causal relationship's degree between variables. 3) As the electricity consumption of different industries is different, the use efficiency of electrical power has a different level, and China's industrial structure will have an impact on power consumption. In this paper, we introduce the industrial structure factor to construction the regression model of consumer power industry in China and take an empirical research on the influence analyses of electric power market and economic. This paper find via analyze: after joining these structural factors, these autocorrelations and DW values of the regress equation are all improved, and it means that structural factors exert prominent influence on China economy and electric demand.For testing the impact of inspection and external factors on electricity market comprehensive, based on studied power market's power structure and industry consumption structure, we study structure change to the China power market by structure change's technology. We use structure change's various condition hypotheses to propose three categories of structure changes. Take into account the data generated process of electric power market; we select the assumption of structural break in intercept or slope changes and establish deterministic trend. As the same time, we apply dummy variables to denote long-term impact of structure change, and build structure change model of the electricity market. Appling the unit root test and trend stationary test, the paper studies electricity market related data's the data generating process, and seeks to the date growth process of inter and outer structural change point. The conclusion indicates that the total annual power generation is the unit root process of structure change and isn't trending stationary process. This paper seeks to the date growth process of inter and outer structural change point.In view of the electricity market and power structure's complexity, we through to study power structure and industry consumption structure and structure change, dig out the risk characteristics of the electricity market. On this basis, the article introduce structural breaks factor, and establish conditional value at risk measurement model based on the structure changes, which is the SC-CVaR model. The risk measurement model cans more realistic reflection of the essential characteristics of power market risks.