Research On The Influence Of The Change Of Consumption Structure On The Industrial Structure Change In China

The process of industrial structure change will lead to reflow and allocation of resources in the industry,when the stage of industrialization led to the development of the second industry,a large number of surplus labor will transfer from low productivity industries to the high production efficiency of industrial sectors,at the stage of industrialization ushered in the "structural bonus".With the weakening of the structural dividend,when the consumer spending tends to the third industry,the industrial structure is dominated by the third industry,and the economic development enters the post industrialization stage.2016 is China's "13th Five-Year" plan at the beginning of the year,but this time our country is faced with complex domestic and international economic environment.From the international economic environment,first of all,the developed capitalist countries in Europe and the United States in recent years to revive the country's manufacturing industry,the relationship between China's economy and the mutual cooperation relationship between the complementary advantages of the original,gradually to the more competitive relationship change;secondly,the international market a new round of information technology revolution is changing the way,pilot production of new trade structure;again,Europe and the United States and other developed countries are actively consolidating the position of the global trade pattern,and challenge has just entered the " new normal " Chinese economic opportunity.From the domestic economic environment,first of all,the domestic economy has accumulated a lot of problems and contradictions,some industry overcapacity,cash flow difficulties,if not timely solve the real economic risk will lead to the risk of economic system;secondly,with China's aging problem is increasingly prominent,labor dividend gradually weakened,and labor costs of enterprises will increase;again,resources and environmental problems brought by traditional extensive mode of economic growth is more prominent,in addition,the urban-rural income gap is still relatively large,easy accumulation of social contradiction.A critical period of transformation of growth mode in the China economy seeking,the change of industrial structure is an important factor in the process of economic growth,and consumption is the "three carriages" in the present contribution to China's economic growth gradually thriving,promote economic growth to consumption driven type is prominent,so the residents' consumption structure change has an important effect on the change of industrial structure.Firstly,this paper introduces the research background and research significance of the topic,research development and Research on the related fields at home and abroad,put forward the need to study the related problems and research ideas and innovations may have.Based on the basic theory in the second chapter.This chapter gives about industrial structure and consumption structure concept,and then describes in detail the classical theories about the industrial structure changes,the next progress on analysis of industrial structure change and explain the mechanism of motivation,consumption structure impact on the industry changes,discussed in income the elasticity of demand and the relative price effects of changes in consumption structure on the industrial structure change is how to affect.From the beginning of the third chapter is the historical process of the change of industrial structure in China according to the time sequence of history were analyzed,which can be summed up,from 1978 to 2014,the overall trend of the change of industrial structure of our country is: the proportion of the added value of primary industry dropped steadily,the second industrial added value proportion remained stable in the dominant enter the position,from China's economic development in the new normal ",has gradually declined,the third industrial added value proportion of relatively low starting point,after the reform and opening up,especially in the establishment of market economy system has sustained rapid growth,we still maintain an upward trend.Then this chapter on the changes of China's consumption structure history in accordance with the subsistence stage,a stage,rich phase and time sequence at this stage is also carried out a detailed statistical analysis,which found that as incomes rising,I The consumption structure of Chinese residents enters the stage of personalized service consumptionThe fourth chapter is the empirical analysis on the change of industrial structure factors.This chapter will influence the changes of industrial structure factors analyzed supply factors and demand factors is divided into two categories,based on this,select the 1980~2014 time series data,through the establishment of vector autoregressive model(VAR),by using the generalized test method of pulse function and variance decomposition,analyzes the factors of the level of economic development,labor supply,capital supply factors,openness,social consumption demand,consumption structure factors on the change of industrial structure in China in the short term impact of strength.In the fifth,six,the seven chapter is about the empirical study the influence of residents' consumption structure change on the industrial structure changes.Because China has not yet completely eliminated two yuan in urban and rural areas of urban and rural integration development system,the degree is low,therefore,urban and rural residents' consumption structure difference is larger,so the empirical analysis of urban and rural residents the consumption structure separately.The fifth chapter mainly analyzes the change of consumption structure of urban residents in China on the impact of industrial structure;the sixth chapter is the analysis about the influence of the rural residents' consumption structure change on industrial structure change.The two chapter all variables data for the 1993 ~2014year time series data,a vector autoregression model(VAR),on the basis of the Granger causality test,Johansen cointegration test,error correction model(VEC),impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis To measure the impact of changes in the consumption structure of urban and rural residents on the changes of industrial structure.Finally,the conclusion of the empirical results are summarized.After the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter of the national urban residents and rural residents consumption structure change on industrial structure change of consumption structure changes in various regions of the country provinces will have impact on the change of industrial structure influence of residents' consumption structure change? This paper will study the province in the seventh chapter of the industrial structure changes.All data is2002~2012 panel data of the 31 provincial areas,at the same time according to the income level of the country is divided into high income areas,middle income and low income area into three sub samples,through panel unit root test,judging panel data cointegration test and model,respectively to the national and three sub samples were obtained for model estimation,the estimation results is consistent,this chapter uses the generalized least squares method(GLS)were carried out empirical test.The eighth chapter is the end of the paper,the main research process and the results of the analysis and interpretation of the objective analysis of the inadequacies of the study,and put forward some prospects for the relevant research.In this paper,the study finds out that although the consumption structure is not the strongest factor in many of the changes of industrial structure factors,but with the increase of the total social demand factors positive effect,and the consumption structure changes of the industrial structure changes more important,in general,the national urban and rural residents consumption structure change influence on the change of industrial structure the study shows that the consumption structure of urban residents can promote the long-term changes of third industries accounted for the proportion of the second industry to improve the industrial structure to promote the service of the change trend,influence the lagged changes of rural residents' consumption structure on the industrial structure changes more significantly,there is a two-way causal relationship between urban transformation and industrial structure changes and the consumption structure of rural residents,20.77% fluctuation of industrial structure changes by the node consumption of urban residents The change to explain 16.97%fluctuation of industrial structure change can be explained by changes in the consumption structure of rural residents,through the establishment of panel data model,the provincial regions of the country,urban and rural consumption structure change and industrial areas with high income and middle-income area structure change and have cointegration relationship,and low income areas no matter is the evolution of consumption structure and industrial structure changes of urban residents of rural residents also do not have a cointegration relationship,the consumption structure of urban and rural residents of second,three industrial added value proportion of the influence of inter provincial differences,urban and rural residents consumption structure changes in China more than 70% of the provincial area has a role in promoting the development of the third industry.Of course,not to compress or sacrifice in the second industry manufacturing industry accounted for third of the increase,Not to compress or sacrifice in the second industry manufacturing industry accounted for third of the increase,but also with the nature of industrial structure in line with the change of resources from low productivity sectors to high production efficiency of the Department of flow.