Research On Dynamic Decision Making Methods Of Complex Product Development Project Portfolio

With the continuous improvement in science and technology, the function and structure ofproducts become more and more complex. Competition among manufactures reflects the economicand technological strength of complex new product development. Complex product development isregarded increasingly as an important source of profit and a key element to access the sustainablecompetitive advantage. Many companies often design and develop a variety of complex productssynchronously to satisfy customer needs from different target markets, which can make full use ofthe limited R&D resources. More and more complex product development projects compete forresources. So it is urgent to study how to manage the synchronized multiple projects. Currentresearch focused on selection and resource allocation of a single project mostly and only on R&Dprojects. There are fewer literatures on project portfolio management in enterprise level. Therefore,it is necessary to study dynamic decision making problems in complex product development (CPD)project portfolio management. Managing and coordinating complex product development projectportfolio has theoretical and practical significance. It can improve resource utilization and increasethe efficiency of product development.The dissertation focused on dynamic decision making problems of complex productdevelopment project portfolio considering the current status of multi-project management inenterprises. It put forward a dynamic decision making model and respective methods based oncorporate strategy. Firstly, evaluation index system of projects was developed and project'sconsistency with strategy was measured in the life cycle; Then, interdependence between projectswas explored and formulated with qualitative and quantitative analysis model; Thirdly, a dynamicproject portfolio decision-making pattern was designed and dynamic decision-making methods werepresented, which considered the project's consistency with strategy and interdependences betweenprojects. Finally, a meta-synthesis decision support system was built to assist the whole decisionmaking process.The main research contents and contributions in the dissertation are summarized as follows:(1) Research on the problem of matching between CPD projects and corporate strategy. Firstly,characteristics of each stage in the life cycle of CPD process was analyzed and an evaluation indexsystem was developed based on Balanced Scorecard(BSC) to measure the project's alignment fit with corporate strategy. The system included four aspects: values and objectives, customer andmarkets, process and management, learning and growth. Then BSC-ANP assessment model wasestablished, in which the causal relationship between indicators was considered and the weight ofeach index was determined by the Analysis Network Process (ANP) method. Meanwhile, because itis full of uncertainty information in the evaluation process, evidence reasoning(ER) was introducedto synthesize qualitative and quantitative information. A evaluation method based on BSC-ER wasproposed which intergrated BSC with ER. Lastly, a case study in an automobile company showedthat the evaluation method is reasonable. It can resolve the problem of matching between vehicleplatform development projects and corporate strategy.(2) Research on the interdependence identification among CPD projects. Firstly, the causes ofthe project portfolio were explored from two aspects. One is the economic model adopted bycorporate; the other is the product development process. Then the mechanism of interdependenceamong projects was analyzed. The interdependence was described from objective properties andecological properties of projects. The qualitative analysis model was developed, including fivedimensions: benefit dependence, cost dependence, schedule dependence, risk dependence and logicdependence. Lastly, quantitative analysis on interdependencies among CPD projects was carried out.The interdependence between two projects and the interdependence among multiple projects wereformulated respectively. These models described the effect of the presence of dependencies on theproject target value quantitatively.(3) Research on the problem of dynamic decision-making of CPD project portfolio. Firstly, theinfluence of corporate strategy on the project portfolio decision-making process was analyzed and aproject portfolio dynamic decision-making pattern was established based on strategy. In this pattern,CPD project portfolio decision-making process was divided into four interrelated sub-processes.They were portfolio strategic positioning process, evaluating the project's consistency with strategyprocess, interdependencies analyzing process, dynamic portfolio selecting process. Then, a nonlinearinteger programming model on dynamic portfolio decision-making was presented under theguidance of that pattern, considering the project's consistency with strategy and interdependenciesamong projects. A improved simulated annealing algorithm was designed to solve the model. Therationality and effectiveness of the model and the algorithm were verified by a case study in anautomobile company.(4) Research on dynamic decision support system of the CPD project portfolio. Because theportfolio decision-making process was complex and the decision-making model was difficult toapply in practice, a decision support system was built to assist the whole decision process. Firstly,characteristics of CPD project portfolio decision-making system was analyzed and a solution to complex decision problems based on meta-synthesis methods was presented. Then, a comprehensiveintegrated interactive decision support system was designed. The system architecture and functionalcomponents were presented and the key technologies of implementation were discussed. Finally,research results above were combined with an example of a case company, in which there weremany concurrent complex product development projects. A meta-synthesis decision support systemwas built to aid the company's portfolio decision process.