Research On Dynamic Decision Making Methods Of Complex Product Development Project Portfolio Under Uncertain Environment

With the rapid development of modern science and technology, the integration of the product continuously improve, the physical structure is more and more complex, and the customer put forward higher requirements on product function. In pursuit of sustained competitive advantage and occupy market to gain long-term profits, more and more enterprises begin to attach importance to the development of complex products. In order to make full use of the limited resources to develop complex products to meet the requirements of customers, the enterprises usually carry out a number of research projects at the same time. Serial and parallel relationships exist between R & D projects. The serial programs are upstream and downstream, upstream projects provide support for downstream projects. And the parallel projects compete for resources, leading to the difficulty in the management of the enterprise. So how to choose the right project and project portfolio is a difficult problem that enterprises face. The existing research rarely paid attention to the uncertainty and project dependencies in the process of project management, and the quantitative indicators or qualitative indexes are used as the evaluation standard so that the comprehensive evaluation of these two indices is ignored. So in order to solve the problem of dynamic decision of complex product development project portfolio under uncertain environment, a comprehensive evaluation model could be established to help business decision-makers to coordinate the management of the project and to effectively improves the development efficiency and reduce the waste of resources during the complex product development process.Firstly, the present research status in the domestic and overseas is reviewed and the existing research problems are pointed out. The sources of uncertainty in project management and the concept and characteristics of complex product are introduced. While the theory and method involved in the multiple attribute decision making problems is elaborated. Secondly, aiming at single project selection problem of complex product development without considering the dependence between projects under uncertain environment, the fuzzy set and semantic uncertainty level are combined to describe the uncertainty of qualitative indicators. A model based on PROMETHEE method is proposed and illustrated by an example to conduct comprehensive evaluation by quantitative index and qualitative index. Finally, the dependency matrix is used to describe the dependencies between projects, and based on the model of single project selection problem without considering the dependence between projects, a model of dynamic decision of complex product development project portfolio under uncertain environment is established and illustrated by an example.