| The "an abode" has always been the livelihood issue of common concern.Housing consumption accounts for a large proportion in expenditure.House price fluctuations directly affect people's living standards.At the same time,the real estate industry as one of the pillars of the national economy,the change of house prices will also have a direct impact on the smooth operation of our economy.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the factors that cause the fluctuation of real estate prices.This paper,through the analysis of the current research status at home and abroad,introduces from the new idea,that the structural imbalance in the real estate market is the main reason for the fluctuation of real estate price,and studies it.Combined with the development process and current situation of China's real estate market,this paper puts forward the theory of the relationship between structural factors and the fluctuation of real estate prices in China,and establishes a related structural index system.Taking the one-two-three class of our country as an example,it establishes a panel data model to analyze the empirical results,and verifies the theoretical assumption.Firstly,based on the current situation of China's real estate market analysis,the results show that China's real estate market is a structural imbalance,a second tier city real estate market is tight,house price grows rapidly,the three or four line of the city is oversupplied,the house is empty and the stock is large.Based on this,this paper studies the influence of structural factors on housing prices in China at different levels.Secondly,structural factors are refined,and qualitative analysis is made on the relationship between structural factors and real estate price fluctuation from the following aspects: structural factors of supply and demand;structural factors of population;structural factors of income;money supply factors;allocation factors of public resources;structural factors of investment use.Thirdly,based on the theoretical analysis,it establishes the structural index,collects sample data from the one-two-three class of the city,and sets up a panel data model.The empirical results show that the structural index has impact on prices,but each index on the one-two-three class of our country housing impact differences.The index of supply and demand has a negative impact on the house price,and it has the greatest impact on the first tier cities,followed by the second line city and the weakest in the three line city.Demographic indicators have a significant impact on housing prices,the rate of city effect comparison of the three line of the city housing is more significant than one-two line city;while total dependency extent are basically the same for one-two-three class of the city,it has a negative impact.the population sex ratio imbalance prices caused by the positive fluctuation,and the on the biggest impact first-tier cities,second tier city second,three line city minimal impact.The index of income structure and the index of money supply are positively related to the house price,and the first tier cities are more sensitive than the two or three line cities.The allocation of public resources has a positive impact on housing prices,but there is no difference in the impact of urban house prices of the one-two-three class of the city.The development of the rental market in the structure of investment use and the increase of housing investment,such as affordable housing,will reduce the price of house prices and have a negative correlation.Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions in view of the existing structural imbalances in China.It is considered that the abnormal fluctuation of housing price is not only related to economic policy,but also related to structural factors.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the characteristics of the one-two-three class of the city and carry out structural reform when carrying out macro-control. |
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