Research On Determinants Of Rural-Urban Migration And Floating Migration In China

With increasing industrialization and urbanization characterizing the economic development ofChina, policy makers are increasingly paying attention to the three rural issues (agriculture, ruralareas and farmers). In particular, the issue of workers who come from rural areas is of greatimportance, and still receives major attention from the Chinese government. In recent years, thegovernment has been loosening hukou restrictions. Rural to urban mobility has become aprominent social phenomenon, including migration (permanent) and floating migration(temporary). To improve the efficiency of mobility, it is necessary to analyze the determinants ofmigration and floating migration in China based on labor supply and market demand.Firstly, this paper refers to the labor mobility theory in western developed countries andempirical study on labor mobility in China; summarize the current governmental policies since1949. As the hukou restriction is being loosened, more and more farmers move to the city forwork and migration becomes an essential type of farmers'employment. Individual andhousehold characteristics are playing an increasing role in migration, rather than governmentregulation.This paper discusses the following five categories: 1) farm at home, 2) local farm, 3) localoff-farm, 4) floating migration, 5) migration. As there is no enough relativity between the firstthree categories and the mobility into the city, this study focuses on the migration and floatingmigration.Secondly, based on the latest database of Chinese Household Income Project, this studydiscusses the law of rural to urban floating migration that rural laborers with high education aremore likely to floating migration; analyzes the choices among different off-farm employmentcategories particularly concerned with educational levels by estimating a multinomial logitmodel. Be consist with the previous result, the years of school are statistically significant forfloating migration; however, it is not sufficient to consider which educational levels areimportant. This study estimates the different educational levels and implies that the likelihood offloating migration is associated with educational attainment up to the level of senior high schooland vocational school. Other estimations prove the previous results: age, the number of childrenand elders, household land are significant negative factors; gender, household size and socialnetworks are significant positive factors.Thirdly, CHIP database does not include the data of"migration"surveyed in rural areas; the existing literature focuses on floating migration but separates the"migration"from totalemployment participations of farmers. Therefore, the field surveys twice are conducted in ruralareas of Hebei Province to investigate the situation of migration and floating migration. Byrunning a multinomial logit model, this paper analyzes the effects of education on off-farmemployment by categorizing educational levels. The results imply that the effects of loweducational levels of elementary school and junior high school are statistically significant andpositive factors affecting floating migration and local off-farm, which are not consistent with theresult based on the CHIP database. Senior high school and vocational school are not significantfactors having effect on floating migration due to the large proportion of rural population and thedifficulty of entrance to the high school. Other positive factors for floating migration includegender and household size; other negative factors for floating migration include age, the numberof elders and household land. Negative factors for migration include age, household land andsocial networks. Previous studies have proved that social networks are positive factors forfloating migration; this study implies that social networks are negative factors for migration dueto the advantages of education and skill from some rural laborers.Finally, by applying a new economic geography model, this paper discusses the effect of marketsize, expected wage and mobility costs on the migration and floating migration. The statisticallyimportant results imply that market size and mobility costs are significant negative factors formigration and floating migration. Not consistent with previous western studies, the city withsmall market size is more likely to attract migration and floating migration. Furthermore,expected wage is not significant factor and rural laborers focus on the mobility costs.Above all, in terms of the labor supply, this study proves that educational levels improvingfloating migration are low, therefore, it is necessary to increase the education; in terms of themarket demand, cities with high economic development have not enough power to attract themigration and floating migration.