Toll Road Ppp Project Concession Pricing Risk Under Conditions

The Public-Private-Partnership (called "PPP" for short) model which is based on the cooperation between the government and the private sector is to increase effective public goods supply through the price adjustment mechanism. Pricing is the key to toll road PPP project decision. There is no lack of examples existed in the current project practice, which made conflicts among government, private sector and public,and produced adverse effects to the project because of improper pricing. In theory, there is not even an effective pricing theory corresponded with toll road PPP project characteristics. In this paper, considering the own characteristics of toll road PPP project, analyse the factors which lead to the difficult pricing systematically, achieve benefit equilibrium among government, private sector and user and delve into more practical toll road PPP project pricing theory to better promote the construction of our toll road infrastructure.This dissertation takes toll road PPP project pricing problem under uncertain environments is the difficult problem, puts forward two key problems to be solved, including:The first, how to control the Risk? In this study, starting from a risk perspective, analyses the influence of risks to the critical pricing factors and gives the probability distribution of the assumption of risk on the toll road PPP project license pricing quantify the degree of influence. The second, How to establish the pricing model? Based on the pricing targets of government, private sector and user, pricing mode is classified as to control the term pricing mode, the profit pricing mode and the price pricing mode.In this paper, the conclusion of the relative references is summarized of three aspects including toll road PPP project financeing model, risk recognization and concession pricing method. And it indicates that the current toll road PPP project pricing theory becomes mature day by day, but can not completely solve the contradiction caused by inaccurate pricing in practice. The main limitation is that the current pricing theory aiming at the common toll road lacks a theory which effectively adopts the own feature of toll road PPP project.Firstly, this paper aims at the features of PPP project, and concludes the key point of success or failure is the change of the risk condition. Through the comprehensive integration discussing method, the scenario analysis and benefit relative group analysis are carried out for PPP project risk, and list the questions. Based on studying the risk how to affect the key pricing means, assumes the probability distribution by the change of the risk condition, then the quantitative analysis of the nondeterminacy risk is realized.Secondly, by analysing the stakeholder in PPP project, it indicates that different roles have different pricing targets among the government, project company and pedestrain. The pricing target of the government is to pursue the maximum benefit of the society, and maximum benefit of the project for project company, maximum effectiveness for pedestrain. Based on these situations, three different pricing models named as the control concession pricing model, control concession profit pricing model and control concession price pricing model are established.Thirdly, based on the engineering economics, after the entirely analysis to PPP project concession pricing theory combined with the staged features of the toll road PPP project, make the functions of construction period, operating period and transfering period. including construction period cost function, operating period profit function, operating period expenditure function and later transfer period expenditure function. And use the Balate pricing model to establish the toll road PPP project concession pricing decision-making model.Then, according to the all kinds of conditions occurred during the operating and practicing period of PPP project, the boundary conditions used for toll road PPP project concession pricing dicision-making model should be determined. The effect caused by nondeterminacy of the risk is always reflected by the change of the amount of traffic. In the concession pricing adjusting model, through qualitative analysis, the adjusting principle and period of the concession price is analyzed; through quantitative analysis, the changing of the amount of traffic, the changing of net present value, the changing of the price and the amount of traffic are analyzed.Finally, in the case of GJZDT toll road PPP project, the concession pricing decision-making model and concession pricing adjusting model are established to verify the validity of the models which will be the template for the projects like PPP project.