The Econometric Analysis Of China's Institution Change And Regional Economic Growth

In this dissertation, the theoretical framework of institutional transformation to economic growth is established based on new classical economics, new economic growth and new economic geography, including geographic space and multidimensional elements. Meanwhile, it is described from a new perspective of combing normative economic with new economic geography, the present situation of regional economic growth and institutional transformation in China. Furthermore, the time series and spatial analysis are applied in the empirical study under the various provincial data from1997to2007integrating the static and dynamic model. As concerned with the research method in this dissertation, a general equilibrium model is firstly constructed containing system variable in mathematical economics method. Then, the time series analysis and panel data modeling are under econometric method. Finally, the space econometric model is analyzed based on the geographically statistical analyses and weighted regression.Combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis, it was explained the role of institutional transformation to the economic growth in China, and it was showed the space relevancy, space differences and space evolution in the China long-term equilibrium development. The main conclusion is that it is significant the marketization reform in the institutional transformation boosting economic growth since China's reform and opening-up. From time series perspective, it is remarkable in the national gross and eastern and central region and not distinctive in the west and northeast. From the provinces panel data modeling analysis, the elasticity of the marketization reform to the actual GDP output is about0.025, namely the market index increased by1%and the actual economic growth will increase0.025%. From space distribution analysis, the degree of marketization reduces gradually from the east coastal areas to the northeast and the west inland, reduced, and the GDP also shows as the same spatial distribution characteristics. From the spatial econometrics model, the marketization process observably pulled economic growth during the period of1997--2007in China.The dissertation is organized as follows:Chapter1indicates the necessity and significance of the research, provides a concise literature review, and states the problematic issues in the existing literature. Then it puts forward the research topic basis and method, the main contents and innovative views. To begin with, combining the geographical space and multidimensional elements to economic growth, the space connection and heterogeneity hypothesis are introduced to build a mathematical model in theory. In the method, it is composed of classical econometric, space statistics, space econometrics and dynamic econometric. In the factor, the market index is used as a proxy variable to reflect China's institutional transformation, and it is more emphasized on the combination of multiple factors. In the data, the time series data, cross-section data, and panel data are all adopted in this dissertation. In the study scales, it is based on exploratory analysis to the available data from provincial area.In Chapter2, the characteristics of China's economic growth under the dual economic structure and the theoretical foundation of institutional transformation research are firstly analyzed. Then the research framework of this dissertation is described from basic premise, theoretical framework, theoretical model, methods model, variable data and so on. This dissertation put emphasis on constructing a mathematical economic model with the variables of institutional factor based on the new classical growth theory. Through the institution definition, it is constructed the institutional elements and analysis framework, and the rational index is selected.Chapter3focuses on the qualitative analysis. From China situation quo since the reform and opening-up, it is investigated that institution transformation to economic growth from four regions eastern, central, western, and northeast covering31provinces, cities and autonomous regions. From theoretical and practical aspects, it explains the relationship of institution and economic growth as typical facts. After the China reform and opening up, especially since the1990's, the early stages of the regional economic development level and growth rate gradually declined along the east coast to the inland space, the provincial economic growth gap expanded, and the gap of area economic was widened as well, to which the institutional factor leaded.In Chapter4, the econometric model is established to quantitative estimation based on the time series analysis. The first step is to conduct GRANGER test for data causality and stationarity. Then the cointegration equation is setup to measure the contribution of institutional transformation in market index to the economic growth from the national gross and four regions in China, including eastern, central, western and northeast area.In Chapter5, the econometric model is established based on panel data. And combined with the qualitative analysis in the Chapter3, it is also compared that the marketizational diversity led to the difference economic growth in different provinces and cities.Chapter6uses the geographic information system to describe the pattern of multi-scale space statistics and graphics analysis, and depict the space-time structure and trends in China regional economic growth and institutional transformation development situation. At first, the Moran'I spatial autocorrelation calculation is used to study the market index of various regions to the geographical interaction and spillover effect. Furthermore, concerned with the spatial converging endogenous effect and the C-D production function, the space error correction model and space distribution lag model are used to verify the key factors to the regional economic growth, such as marketization, fixed capital, human capital investment and so on.Chapter7is the last part of this dissertation, the research results are summarized, conclusions are made, and suggestions for future study are proposed.