| Auction, as a common mechanism of price discovery and resource allocation, can reduce the transaction costs and improve the transaction efficiency effectively. Now, auction is widely used in trades of agricultural products, antique, land, the rights of mineral exploitation, company equity and so on. Since the clock auction of descending price was introduced into Dutch flower market in1980s, auction have played an important role in developing the agricultural circulation circulation in the world, and is becoming one of the important deal modes in fresh agricultural circulation system in China. Compared with the environment of fresh agricultural auction markets abroad, it is so different in China that there is a great fluctuation in the deal price of agricultural products. Because of the price fluctuation, the operational capability of fresh agricultural market is seriously affected. Considering the reality of the bad financial position in Chinese auction markets, studying the regulations of price fluctuation and its influencing factors has great significance in theory and practice.This paper includes the following three parts:(1) The regulations of price fluctuations among trading days. First, this paper studies the impacts of supply and demand on price changes using a classical theory of elasticity called cobweb model. The study explains price changes in theory and analyzes impacts of participants'choices on price changes. Then, based on the cointegration and Granger causality tests, the relationships between price and supply, volume or unsold rate are analyzed. After that, it analyzes the price series, supply series, volume series and unsold rate series by constructing conditional heteroskedasticity model. Finally, after excluding the factors mentioned above, we study the impacts of price expectation on supply fluctuations and the impacts of supply expectation on price fluctuations separately. Taking into account the differences among overall market, category and specific products, we gives a comprehensive analysis in overall market, category and specific products using cobweb model, cointegration and Granger causality tests, conditional heteroskedasticity model and the influence model of expectation separately.(2) The regulations of price fluctuations in a trading day. Firstly, we defined and analyzed three important indicators, prices'anomaly and correlation of price. The three important indicators refer to the fluctuation range of price, the change rate of price fluctuation and the change rate of price fluctuation range. Then, the differences and relationships are showed among different grades, different suppliers and different products in price fluctuation range, the change rate of price fluctuation and the change rate of price fluctuation range. Besides, the regulations of the change rate of price fluctuation range are also studied from the perspectives of homogeneous and heterogeneous products. At last, this paper analyzes the trends of the price and the volatility in sequential auction. It assumes nine categories of supply and demand scenarios to study the relationships between price, volatility and ordinal, and analyzes the heterogeneous products'impacts on the trends of the price and the volatility.(3) The interpretations of price fluctuation from the perspective of auction theory. Based on the facts of fresh agricultural products in China, the paper studies the effects of different commission strategies on the deal price. Then some modes of setting commission rate are given. Secondly, it discusses the setting of optimal reservation price under different commission strategies, and focuses on the problems of the sellers' valuation and unsold handling mechanisms. Moreover, the risk attitudes of participants are also discussed, including the effects on the bidders'quoted price under the risk-aversion buyers, the quality inspection and the reservation price under the risk-aversion sellers. Finally, the paper discusses the price trends of Holland's sequential auction, and the impacts of the characteristics of substitutions or co-supplement of goods on the bidders'quoted price.All the studies are based on the actual deal data from a real auction market, and the conclusions are as the followings:(1) The extended cobweb model based on the characteristic of choices can not only make the balance price fitting on practice more, but explain the choosing behavior of participants. The results of case of cointegration and Granger causality tests shows that, the price and supply have long-term co-integration relationship, supply is an endogenous variable of price. There exists obvious ARCH effect among the series of yield rate, supply, trading volume and unsold rate. The negative effect of supply and trading volume is bigger than positive effect, and unsold rate is mainly characterized by a positive leverage effect. The influence model of expectation proves the basic hypothesis of the paper, that is, the supply expectation of the buyers has negative effect to price, and the price expectation of the suppliers has positive effect to supply.(2) Price fluctuation range, the change rate in price fluctuation, the change rate in price fluctuation range, the anomaly in price and the correlation of price can not only effectively portray the difference and relations of the changes in price between different grades, different suppliers and different products, but regard as the important indexes of suppliers evaluation. The character of products, the brand of suppliers, and the quality of products are three more important factors of the price fluctuation in a trading day. The variable prices in sequential auction are not only related to the impacts of supply and demand, but also to the order of auction, supply, and whether the auction is continuous. Besides, due to the packaging products, heterogeneous products will also affect the price volatility in sequential price.(3) The low commission rate of sellers needs a high commission rate of buyers to gain the same effect. Auction market should set a different commission rate according to the effective division of groups of sellers and buyers. Supermarket can increase the sellers'profit, but reduce the constraint force of the sellers at the same time. The auction market should bring the buyer into its quality evaluation system. The speculative behaviors of the sellers can't increase its expected profit. It can use commission strategies and the reservation price mechanisms to decrease the risk attitude of participants. There exist many reasons to "price abnormally". The characteristics of substitutions of goods leads the bidders'quoted price to decline, but the characteristics of co-supplement of goods make the bidders'quoted price to increase. The effective matching of more supplies and more buyers can reduce the price fluctuation in sequential auction. The auction market needs to use effective strategies to increase supplies and the number of buyers.The followings are the innovations of this paper:(1) Based on the actual transaction data, this paper deeply analyzes the price fluctuation phenomenon of fresh agricultural market in China from the perspective of elastic theory, co-integration theory and Granger causal relationship, conditional heteroskedasticity model. Then it gives some hypothesis and proves them.(2) The definitions of three important performance indexes of price fluctuation in a trading day are given:the range of price fluctuation, the change rate of price fluctuation and the change rate of price fluctuation range. This paper also defines the phenomenon of price anomaly, describes the analysis framework of price fluctuation in a trading day, and analyzes the price fluctuation phenomenon in sequential auction with different situation.(3) Reference to the actual background of Chinese fresh agricultural products, we research on the effects of commission, reserve price, risk attitudes, changes of risk, alternative and complementarities in sequential auction. According to these above, we give the relevant strategies and suggestions in allusion to setting of commission rate, market pricing outside, auction failure managing, quality testing and "shill bidding" defending. These strategies and suggestions can guide the mechanism design of fresh agricultural products market in China.
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