Futures Market Risk And Regulatory Research,

The economic development needs constant financial creation, meanwhile, it cultivated financial creation, and this creation constantly promoted the fast development of economy. Modern futures, with a development history of 150 years, an important part of financial creations, has evolved from commodity futures to commodity futures and financial futures, it plays great role in economy. Yet, in same time, the risk of futures has obvious destructiveness to financial system even to economic system, we can see this from Asian financial crisis in 1997. Under this background, the article takes market risk and supervision of futures as study objects, to analyze it from different view of formation of futures market, this is a new view. That is to say, the stress begins from securities supervision commission, futures trade union, futures exchange, futures broker agent and investment organ to discuss risk's kinds, reason, force and supervision, the purpose is to play its promotion role in national economic development.First, Starting with the discussing of the futures market's beginning and development, the article advances new functions of futures while consummating the conception of futures' function. We get it through investigating the process of futures' connotation development that evolved from commodity futures to commodity futures and financial futures. Second, Starting at the fluctuation and risk, the article researches the conception of and the reason of fluctuation. The article distinguishes the fluctuation and the risk and sums the kinds of the risk. Third, regarding the reason of futures risk as the venation, the article thinks over the futures risk in microcosmic and gets the reasons why present futures risk can deepen through studying the theories of economics. These help more research of futures risk's measurement. Finally, conceiving the supervision of futures as principal part, the article makes clear the object and goal of the supervision of futures risk through discussing the supervision theory. The article researches the futures market from different levels, suggests that set up market maker rule in china, and gives the advice.The main contribution and creation of the article can be summed up as followingfour aspects:(1) General futures theory holds that the functions of futures are price finding and avoiding of risk, but this article raises new function, such as investment management, flow improvement for financial market, promotion the bank development in fund raising for securities, to introduce capital and develop the national or local economy. These are concept of whole functions of futures.(2) The reasons for futures risk are: separation between fund move and commodity move; the dummy market increases the probability of financial risk; the fierce fluctuation of prices of financial products; the incompletion of credit and financial supervision system; the economic globalism offers external condition for further extension of financial risk; the flow of international capital offers convenient channel for transfer of financial risk.(3 ) In the past, the study for supervision of futures risk laid stress on six kinds of risk which were confirmed by Basel Commission in 1994, it was a lateral study. This article adopts vertical study method, takes securities supervision commission, futures trade union, futures exchange, futures broker agent and investment organ as whole vertical system, to supervise the futures risk in different levels and views, sets the different levels of market as an integration, to supervise and manage the futures risk with systematic engineering method.(4) In order to control futures market risk and links up with global futures market, the article suggests: to perfect laws and rules for market maker and secure the strict implementation of theses laws and rules; use mixed style of instructive price system and market maker rule; trial first and promotion second; actively train market maker and investors, to organize large-scale futures broker agent and futures investment fund; to set legal, simple and low-cost financing channels for market maker; to provide more means and methods to market maker for avoiding risks.