| Under the situation of continuous increment of population, high growth rate of economy, accelerating process of urbanization and industrialization, the people-land problem is getting more and more serious. In 2003, the land area used for construction has reached 229khm2,17% up than 2002. The farmland area has been reduced to 0.123 billion hm2 (end of 2003) from 0.126 billion hm2 (end of 2002). As we know, Chinese land resources per capita is only 43% of the world average level while our population goes up at the increment of 10 to 12 million per year. Under such strict limitation of land resources, Chinese government has adopted the most serious land management policy. The transforming of farmland from agricultural use to non-agricultural use has been limited rigidly. In order to reach the targets of sustainable use of land resources, and to resolve the conflict between food and construction, the government should keep balance of land resources using and supplying. There are only two ways to realize the above targets: one is to cultivate new farm land, which can add farm land area directly; another way is to begin with land consolidation, which can supply land resources through the way of changing land use structure, increasing land use efficiency. It is well-known that the land use efficiency is very low for long time. Thererefore, the potential of increasing land resources by land consolidation is much great. Land consolidation, as a tool to fulfill our country's basic policy, a tool to make sure food safety, to put the general strategy of dynamic land balance into effect, a tool to resolve the conflict between economic development and farm land protection, a tool to coordinate the relationships among eco-social development, natural resources and eco-environment, is being carried out vigorously all over the country.Urban land consolidation (ULC), as an important aspect of land consolidation, is widely being carried out in China. But the risk and its consequent loss may occur in the process of ULC have not been recognized totally, let alone developing a complete risk management system to identify, analyze and manage risk. There are two main factors account for this problem: one is that ULC is quite new to us and so less theoretical study on it; the other is people are not aware of risk and lack sense of risk. This situation leads to ULC risk, which has brought negative effect on the returns of ULC and hence a hinder to the development of ULC, happens again and again. In order to guarantee the smoothdevelopment of ULC and to prevent risk, a complete study on ULC risk is a must. The study should concern the character, sorts, root cause, the ways of ULC risk management and also needs to put forward practical risk management method for ULC activities.Basing on the meanings of both on theory and on practice mentioned above, this dissertation gives a complete research on ULC risk. The main scope of this research covers: to probe the ULC risk factors which have effect on the smooth implementation and the realization of expected returns of ULC; to analyze the characters, sorts, probability and the consequent loss of those risks; to find out a suitable risk analysis model to analyze ULC risk degree; to put forward correspondent risk management method for ULC activities basing on the result of risk evaluation. This study will be great beneficial to the reduction, the controlling of ULC risk and also a good guidline for the development of ULC both theoretically and practically. This study consists of introduction and main parts.In introduction part, the background, aim and meanings of this study are briefly stated first and then brief introduction to the research status of ULC risk both aboard and home, the thoughts, methods, system and structure of this dissertation.The main part composes of eight chapters. In chapter one, the paper gives a brief review about the theoretical and practical status of land consolidation both home and abroad and makes it clear about the content, aim, meanings, ways of land consolidation. The definition of ULC and the research scope of this paper are also brought out in this chapter. A summary study on the character, style of ULC, risk of ULC and a comparative analysis of the relation between ULC and rural land consolidation are shown in chapter one. The necessity and urgency of risk management in the process of ULC has been pointed out and hence a prelude for the following studies. In chapter two, according to the character of ULC risk, a theory analysis is given by using decision making theory, principle-agency theory and game theory. This study shows that risk is an inherent quality of ULC. This chapter also deals with the character, sorts and root cause of ULC risk and argues that all those ULC risks can be managed. A kind of ULC risk management method is put forward here basing on above research. Chapter three, four and five are major parts of this paper, which has formed a complete research of ULC risk. In chapter three, risk identification, the first step of ULC risk management, is studied completely. The contents, principles, basis, process and ways of ULC risk identification are also studied in detail. In general, this chapter provides a base for further studies. In chapter four, organization risk,which is critical to ULC project, has been studied by using property right theory and principle-agency theory. This chapter also studies those characters of property relations and relations of principle-agency lying in ULC projects, and says that the successful management of human risk is the core of all ULC risk management. Basing on the periodic character of ULC project, under the guidance of system theory, chapter five goes systematically to the study of periodic risk of ULC. The whole ULC process has been divided into four periods: period of decision making, period before implementation, period of implementation and period after implementation. The character, root cause and the consequences of ULC risk receive a detail study in this chapter. In chapter six, according to risk management theory and the character of ULC risk, a kind of ULC risk evaluation model has been developed by using the methodology of AHP fuzzy comprehensive analysis. This model has constructed a suitable evaluation hierarchy and practical risk indices system for ULC project risk evaluation. In chapter seven, on the basis of the previous four chapteres study, the problem of how to manage ULC risk is studied throgh modern risk management theory and project management theory. Detail risk management methods concerning organization form, risk management principles, risk management techniques, risk management returns evaluation and risk use are brought out here and so a complete ULC risk management system has been constructed. Basing on the research results of above chapters, the countermeasures for government and project organization on how to prevent and manage ULC risk are put forward. |
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