The Portfolio Pension Pattern And Its Risk Management Control

The old age guarantee is one of the most important components of the social security system. In most countries, its basic form is endowment insurance system. Currently, the reformation and perfection of this system has become the most focused debate among scholars all over the world. Every country's government has also paid close attention to this significant problem.In this paper, on the basis of the achieved research on endowment insurance mode in and abroad, the old age guarantee system is regarded as a complex large -system. With comprehensive application of the economics of public pensions, the theory of invest combination, the theory of risk management, the market economic cybernetics and so on, in regard to the reality of endowment insurance system's reformation in our country, a type of endowment insurance combination mode, which is adapted to our situation, is carefully explored and discussed, through the theoretic study and large-system modeling, so as the corresponding mathematic model system on large-system. A series of creative results are achieved through the systematic research on optimized model and method of risk management & control, which is used to study the endowment insurance combination mode. These results have certain theory meaning and application value, and they would be helpful to promote the endowment insurance's reformation in our country.In this paper, research works has been launched in the following respects:1. Types of endowment insurance system in different countries, mainly as traditional type, welfare type, state's security type and reserved fund ,is summarized., Its advantage and disadvantage is analyzed .Meanwhile ,the basic principles of risk management of the endowment insurance mode ,types of the risks and the relevant management & control strategy is explored and discussed .2. A new mode of housing endowment insurance and its operation mechanism is introduced .A new train of thought in further research on relevant quantitative analysisand management & control is provided.3. From the perspective of actuarial analysis and prediction of the endowment insurance's effect in the future, an idea of combining endowment insurance mode is systematically put forward. Three definite modes are provided, that is, weighted average mode, least squares mode and multi -layer mode. These mode 's attribute is also analyzed respectively.4. With the application of large-system's theory and methods, aimed at coordinative development of endowment insurance combination mode, from macroscopic perspective, the large-system controlling of the endowment insurance mode's risk management is discussed, a series of corresponding mathematic model is set up to conduct quantitative evaluation, prediction and controlling on risk management now and in the future.5. With the background of endowment insurance mode's management & control, input and output information in human thinking process and the fuzzy model respectively relevant to three different types of thinking form are discussed. A comprehensive coordination and judgment model of the thinking form is also set up in this thesis.6. Aimed at endowment insurance mode' risk management & control, two types of self -adaptive management & control algorithm, one based on L-R fuzzy number, another on T-S fuzzy model, are studied and put forward. Instances on reality imitation are provided as well.7. There is a complexity in long-time prediction of the endowment insurance mode, in consideration of that, a new comprehensive coordination and prediction model, which is based on model clan and algorithm clan, is set up.8. With the background of the reality of the endowment insurance's large -systems, the problem of coordinating and controlling such dynamic large—systems are discussed, with the comprehensive application of the large-system's theory and some new research achievement in the distinguish and control of the time-varying system, a type of comprehensive coordination and prediction model is put forward, as well as its distinguishing algorithm and the corresponding self-adaptive coordinationand control algorithm.9. From the analysis on the relevant factor of the endowment insurance and the research on the law and trend of its coordinative development, a coordinative evaluation index model of the endowment insurance's risk management is set up, in addition to a fuzzy coefficient-varying programming model and a fuzzy multi -objectives evaluation model.There are mainly three creative points in this paper:1. With the application of large-system modeling, a new type of the endowment insurance combination mode and its relevant mathematic model system has been put forward systematically.2. The self-adaptive algorithm for the risk management of the endowment insurance combination is put forward. This algorithm is either L-R fuzzy figure based or T-S fuzzy model based.3. The coordination forecasting model, coordination control model and coordination evaluation model for the large-system's risk management of the combination endowment insurance are put forward.