Study On The Investment Decision-making And Economic Evaluation Based On China Inner Financed BOT Of Highway Project

Combining the theory of finance engineering, traffic engineering and systemengineering, and setting out with benefit and cost, the article makes thorough studyon investment decision-making and evaluation of inner financed BOT implemented inChina, based on the theory of real-option. The theory of inner financed BOT ofhighway investment decision-making and evaluation system is initiatorily come intobeing in this article.I. This article gives the dynamic prediction method of inner financed BOT ofhighway project investment so as to resolve the problem that fails to be quantized bymulti-risks. The method to describe inner financed BOT of highway projectinvestment by use of price index and risk property of benefit is put forward, toestablish the function formulate of price index and benefit prediction. The dynamicprediction mode of inner financed BOT of highway project is formed and thedynamic prediction of inner financed BOT of highway project is figured out.II. The applicability of real-option pricing method in the investmentdecision-making of inner financed BOT of highway project is definitized, sinceirreversibility of real-option investment, time extension and selectivity of real-optioninvestment is discussed. The principal of real-option in inner financed BOT ofhighway project and the applicable process of real-option in making-decision andevaluation of BOT is advanced, with real-option set up in inner financed BOT.III. To set up increasing option mathematical model of inner financed BOT ofhighway project and to reach quantum analysis of project investmentdecision-making. This article modifies the value loss of the model in order to have themodel get more practical applicable value.IV. The article puts forward the analysis method by game theory of projectinvestment decision-making, and the decision-making and evaluation model if furtherconsummated. The option game theory of inner financed BOT of highway project isanalyzed and the value of increasing option existing in inner financed BOT ofhighway project is analyzed by applying game theory. And also, the mathematicalmodel of increasing option set in this paper is verified.V. The positive research on two instances in context illustrates that the method ofreal-option takes full account on the value of investment opportunity anddemonstrates the validity of the mathematical mode of investment decision-makingevaluation put forward in this article.