A Research On Highway Investment Decision-making Based On Real Option

In the development of economy developing process, transportation infrastructure is playing an important function, with development of economic, there are more and more investments investing on highway built for traffic volume. And because of ignoring management and strategic flexibility, traditional investment decision-making method presented by net present value, has appraised the real value of highway investment project m ore and more difficulty, but real option may make up this insufficiency, to a certain degree, quantitatively processing each kind of opportunity, flexibility and uncertainty in the project by dynamic duplication, thus enhances complex investment decision-making accuracy.This thesis attempts to introduce real option theory to highway project investment appraisal, real option has natural superiority on excavating elastic value of investment project ,managing uncertainty, evaluating investment opportunity, but because parameters of traditional B-S model are hard to determine, this thesis combines BP nerve network with genetic algorithm to evaluate, with non- analytic solution form, improving decision-making method of existed highway investment decision-making methods , helping policy-maker make correct policy-making analysis.This thesis consists of six chapters:Chapter 1 is the preface, which introduces purpose and meaning of the field, the related research summarize of domestic and overseas, the purpose of research, content and method.Chapter 2 puts forward problems, analyses high way investment decision-making actuality and existed problems, mostly aiming at traditional NPV method, and putting forward applied frame based on real option.Chapter 3 put forwards elementary theory of highway investment decision-making according to applied frame, including real option and real option pricing theory,BP annual nerve network theory, genetic algorithm theory, makes preparation for establishing the model, analyzing investment decision-making including investment characteristic, influencing factor, as well real option characteristic.In the following chapter, the author puts forwards basal theory, including realoption theory and real option pricing theory,BP annual network theory,geneticalgorithm theory, and analyses investment characters of highway investment and its real option characters, preparing for model.Chapter 5, the author discussing on application of real option based on B-P nerve network by highway investment project.At the last chapter, the author draws the conclusion that the application of real option method is much effective and scientific than other methods.