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Research On Chinese Grain Security Based On Grain Price

Posted on:2006-12-17Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X L LuoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360182968627Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The grain is vital to national economy. As a famous Chinese saying goes, "Grain in home, ease in heart", only when have been satisfied with food, can people be energetic to deal with other businesses. So the grain security is very important for all of the nations and regions and has a significantly strategic meaning, which is related to national security, regime stability and economic growth. Especially, it is crucial to study the issue in China, giant of agricultural, which has a population of 1.3 billion, while 70% is peasant.Focusing on the grain price in China, the thesis explores national grain security. First of all, it expatiates the national grain price forming mechanism and price system systematically. Based on those referred above, it reviews the history of supply and demand of national grain; by analyzing various factors that affect supply and demand of national grain, we constitute forecast models of supply and demand respectively, which shows that there will be wide gaps in national grain supply of the year 2010, 2015 and 2020, the number of each estimated about 27272400, 23497400 and 24192700 tons; then we get the conclusion that the grainprice will be kept on a high level and the situation of national grain security is under great tension by analyzing the conflict between price and supply and demand of grain in previous years.Under the condition that the process of economic integration and trade liberalization grows faster, we discuss the relationship between grain price and international trade in order to solve the problem of wide gap of grain in the future, while most nations adopt international trade policy to counterbalance their domestic deficiency. Based on a thorough research on grain trade between China and the others, we analyze the correlativity of price fluctuation between domestic grain market and world grain market quantitatively. Firstly, it shows that there is certain correlativity between the fluctuation of the price in national grain market and that of world grain market, but the degree of it is not very high, especially for wheat and corn. The domestic price of wheat has a negative correlation to the price abroad, so it is better to adjust the supply and demand of domestic market by international grain trade. Secondly, we can make use of the markets, in which the coefficient is low, to import and export grain because of the correlativity differences between the fluctuation of domestic grain market price and those of other different areas. Additionally, the thesis weighs the grain security from the point of grainself-support rate 100% instead of the stuffy thought in the past, which uses grain gross self-support rate, based on quantitative analysis, and bring forward a creative view that lowest gross self-support rate of grain could be 88%.After analyzing two main factors, the supply and demand of grain and international trades, which affect the grain security and then have an indirect influence on the grain price, we start with research in angel of the present price of grain security and price in future market, which reflect in the grain security, to study national security situation and constitute its alert system. Above all, the thesis studies the issue on grain price and grain security. After the quantitative analysis on the rule of grain price fluctuation, we find the four periods of price fluctuation and amplitude of each of them; then constitute a decisive model of national grain price, analyze each factor and make some suggestions about grain security according to their effect.After knowing the relationship between commodity price fluctuation and grain security, the thesis explores the futures price index in the way of price in future market and ascertains concrete methods to draw up the grain future market price index from Jan 10th, 2003 to May 10th, 2005.Through the positive analysis on alert function of grain future price index, we find that it is effective to discover the trend of future commodity price with no bias, and conclude that it is feasible and effective to make use of the grain future price index to alert the grain security in 3 months ahead at least.
Keywords/Search Tags:Grain security, Grain price, Grain supply and demand, Grain trade, Price fluctuation, Futures price index, Grain security alerting system
PDF Full Text Request
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