Study On The Fluctuation Of Grain Price In China Under The Background Of Grain Financialization

In recent years,the price fluctuation of agricultural products in China has aroused widespread concern.We can learn from numerous meetings,documents and reports.At present,China's grain prices are facing a lot of confusion: First,in the case of China's grain production for twelve consecutive years,the basic balance of grain supply and demand and the stock is sufficient,grain prices are still rising;Second,the period of China's grain price fluctuation is shorter and shorter,and the frequency of fluctuation is higher and higher;Third,the classic theory is difficult to explain the current grain price fluctuations,that is,the overall balance of supply and demand,and even the supply is greater than demand,the state of grain prices still rose significantly.In many of the factors of price,grain as the representative of the agricultural products "financialization" gradually into everyone's vision has aroused widespread concern of government departments and the public.This paper is to explore the factors that affect China's grain price fluctuations from the financial point of view.On the basis of the previous achievements,first,we review the theory of price fluctuation of agricultural products,as the web and currency fluctuation theory.Then,the paper makes a theoretical analysis of the causes and effects of grain financialization and explains the influence of grain Finance on grain price and grain security from three aspects of grain production,consumption and trade,to lay the theoretical foundation for the following part.Secondly,combined with the current situation and characteristics of China's grain price fluctuations.Based on the analysis of the traditional factors,the main factors affecting the fluctuation of grain price in China were analyzed by the data from January2010 to February 2017.At the same time,calculate the impact of these financial factors on China's grain prices,according to the variance decomposition and the impulse response.Finally,on the basis of theoretical and empirical tests,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to restrain the fluctuation of grain price in China.The main conclusions of this paper are: The external environment,such as financial factors,is more and more obvious to the price of domestic agricultural products,The price fluctuation of agricultural products more and more reflects the change of capital market;Impact on China's grain price fluctuation from high to low is the futures market price,exchange rate,venture capital,M2,CPI,the international energy prices,the international price of agricultural products futures.At present,the domestic grain price is not obvious,but with the gradual opening of China's agricultural products market,the impact of foreignfinancial factors on China's grain prices will become more and more prominent;China's futures market has some price discovery on the spot market,but the effect is limited,China's futures market still needs to be improved.It put forward the following countermeasures: to speed up the construction of commodity spot market,improve the futures market of our country,strengthen the supervision of the futures market and the capital market,establish and improve the grain security early warning system,strengthen international cooperation,establish a more perfect market information disclosure system of agricultural products,improve the financial service system of agricultural products and agricultural comprehensive production capacity.