Study On United Optimal Operation Of Cascaded Hydropower Plants In Supahe Drainage Area

In this paper, aiming at the running characteristic of cascaded Hydropower Plantsin Supahe drainage area, through using the theory of system engineering, mathematicstatistics, dynamic programming, and so on, by making the best use of computertechnology and internet technology, the theory and technique of synthetical optimaloperation of cascaded hydropower plants is lucubrated, eletricity market orientedsynthetical optimal operation of cascaded hydropower plants in Supahe drainage areais founded. The main contents and achievements of this thesis are listed as following:(1)Aim at different flows' description, the optimal operation model based onstatistical analysis for inflow, the optimal operation model analyzing inflow forecasterror, the optimal operation model in the case of the inflow information is known andthe optimal operation model of calculating the least water consuming when thedynamoelectric charge is definite are presented. The object function and its recursiveequation of optimal operation ,the input, output, decision-making variable, statevariable and restriction condition, the bidirectional recursive calculating method forstochastic dynamic programming of the object function is presented, GA calculatingmethod is introduced, and the two methods is compared.(2)The long-term hydrological forecast model of Supahe drainage area isstudied roundly and deeply. Through confirming the type of model ,on the base ofmodel identifying, Random simulation ARMA(p,q) model for five station annualflows of SuPaHe drainage area is presented, on the basis of it, the typicaldecomposition model for five station annual flows of Supahe drainage area ispresented, and graphics simulation. Improved genetic algorithm integrated simulationanneal idea is presented, for the sake of making up the shortage of flow forecastmodel, real time emendation method for long-term hydrological forecast of SuPaHedrainage area is presented, at last, integrating with 39 years flows data of SuPaHedrainage area, Above-mentioned model is proved and applied.(3) the rainfall conflux forecast model of Supahe drainage area based onimproved ANN models. Through optimizing the initializition and connect power byGA, the SuPaHe rainfall conflux forecast method of ANN models based on GA ispresented. In order to improving the veracity and timely of input data, GIS basedforecast method for rainfall conflux forecast is presented, at last, with applying topractical engineering, it is can be proved that the method for rainfall conflux forecastis credible and high efficiency.(4)The optimal operation of cascaded hydropower plants in Supahe drainagearea in the case of pinnacle-valley price and abundant-dry price is studied in thispaper, The long-term and short-term mathematical model optimal operation ofcascaded hydropower plants in Supahe drainage area is presented, of sorts restrictingcondition of reservoir is considered fully, restriction condition of the mathematicalmodel is confirmed rationally, and the model is calculated by stochastic dynamicprogramming method, year and day optimal operation of SuPaHe drainage areacascaded hydropower plants is raelized, through numeric contrasting, the fact isvalidated that the optimal operation model presented in this paper can assigndynamoelectric Using flux, so the generate-electricity income of the hydropowerplants is maximal.(5)The decision-making support system for synthetical optimal operation ofcascaded hydropower plants in Supahe drainage area is elementary explored, the goaland idea of the system, the structure and content of the system based on GIS and thegraphic assistant decision-making function of DSS is presented, the structure ofcompositive DSS is described, then, adapting the development and requirement ofinternet, the share on internet of the information of the optimal operation DSS ispresented.