Study On The Investment Decision-making For Reproduction Of Enterprise In Process Industry

With entry of WTO, enterprises of process industry with low efficient and highcost will be confronted with more challenges and competition than manufacturingindustry. Facing the ever-increasing global markets, metasynthesis of technology andmanagement is the only way for process systems moving towards the globaloptimization. Enterprises should change from way of extensive mode to way ofintensive mode by enhancing level of investment decision-making of reproductionproject in process industry.The core of theory on investment decision-making is metasynthesis of processsystem. Process system technology should comprise soft technology system and hardtechnology system. The paper points out structure of process systems for design,production and management in the enterprises of process industry. Applications ofmetasynthesis decrease low efficient decision and increase preciseness of investmentdecision.According to the review of research on investment of decision-making ofreproduction of enterprise in process industry, some problems and importance of theresearch are pointed out. Based on the strategy for metasynthesis and globaloptimization of process systems, the architecture of process systems is analyzed. Thisarchitecture enables the integration from unit process simulation and real-timeoptimization to enterprise resource planning and investment decision making ofreproduction project. Considering the flexibility of new reproduction units and inhereunits, the strategy of design and investment decision-making is put forward.With changes of intensive competition market, it is important for process industryto investigate the long-range tendency of market development. Some methods ofmarket prediction are reviewed and analyzed. The step of market prediction is broughtforward. The paper discusses market price of product in case study is predicted by theapplication of BP artificial neural networks.The model of life cycle cost for reproduction project in process industry is putforward. Life cycle cost includes investment cost and total operation cost. This papergives comparison & analysis on representative investment estimate models at homeand abroad. It points out the advantages and disadvantages of each model as well astheir applicable conditions. It also puts forward a more efficient new investmentestimate model based on total life cycle of process systems. Some methods andsuggestions on investment projects of petrochemical industry are put forward. Foroperation cost, it should be lower by the application of advanced energy-savingtechnology (process integration). The model of life cycle cost for reproduction projectis applied to the optimal design of distillation column.Taking into account technology goal, economy goal and sustainable developmentgoal, the paper brings forward the model evaluation system of investment project.Goal Programming is utilized to solve the multi-objective mixed integer nonlinearprogramming model and optimized investment project. The software for economicevaluation is developed based on Excel 1997. It can be applied to the financialmanagement for evaluation system of economy goal. Based on the characteristics oflarge investment project, the risk analysis of reproduction projects is systematicallystudied by the application of Monte Carlo method.In view of development tendency of DSS, the paper develops structure model ofinvestment DSS for reproduction of process industry. This paper analyzed thelimitation of traditional DSS, introduced the characteristic of Data Warehouse andData Mining, put forward a new kind of DSS with Data Warehouse and Data Miningsupported according to demands of the users and development of new technology.Three practical cases are given by the application of this theory of investmentdecision-making of reproduction project in process industry.