Risk Analysis Method And Application Of Weapon System Development Project Based On Influence Diagram

According to the risk characteristic existing in weapon system development project(WSDP), the influence diagram was amended in order to analyze the risk of the WSDP. The evaluation method of the amended influence diagram was developed also. The estimation method of correlation coefficient between schedule and cost was proposed. Based on these researches, the risk of one project was analyzed and evaluated.The traditional Influence Diagram was amended to describe the risk of the WSDP more clearly. Considering it is most important to provide the detail information of each risk event but not only the risk measurement to the deciders, a concept called risk node was introduced, which was utilized to store the detail information of each risk event such as every possible state of the event, the probability and the consequence of each state. Two kinds of relationships between nodes, that is, independent and combination relationships, were defined. Also, the concept of Howard canonical form was corrected. And the risk analysis framework faced to the WSDP based on the Influence Diagram theory was put forward.The evaluation algorithm was given to evaluate the amended Influence Diagram. This paper expounded the importance about recognizing the independent relationships between each risk factor node when to construct the influence diagram at the beginning. The expression method of the independent relationship and the topology rule of constructing the independent mode/scene influence diagram according to these independent relationships were given.Combination relationship was introduced to describe the problem encountered in the risk evaluation practice, that is, different experts may give out different judgments about the combination mode of many risk factors, when some other risk factors status is changed or some risk event occurs owing to these risk factors. It was proposed to fuse these combination relationships using the reasoning theory. Three types of inferior value nodes were adopted to describe three kinds of risk consequence, and the rolling method was developed to compose different inferior value nodes.The conditional distribution of the schedule about the cost was deduced. And the estimation method of correlation coefficient between the schedule and the cost based on the historical data was proposed.Later, the risk of the Hypersonic Demostration System development project was...