Research On Some Issues In The Management Process Of New Products Development Under Uncertainty

Peter Drucker, the management master, once said, "Innovate or Die". Innovation is an eternal subject and source of sustainable development for enterprise. Because product is final visible output of an enterprise as well as carrier of enterprise's innovation, it is an impersonal claim which greets globalization competition and knowledge-based economy for ages to give more attention to new product developmental management (NPDM). Considering the existence of highly uncertainty (including random and fuzzy) is the most difficulty in NPDM, the problems in NPDM under uncertainty is very knotty but can not be dodged. Focusing on the kernel frame of NPDM under view of whole process marketing, the article researches several mainly problems by introducing new theories and methods to build up model, improves and perfects the present theory of NPDM, and has important academic value and application value.First of all, developing a suitable new product must be obtained enough support of internal and external environment of enterprise. Expressing product innovation's desire of manager by the new product quantity (Q) that enterprise wants to supply, the authors introduce responsibility coefficient of new product development, build up credibility programming model to analyze the innovation desire of enterprise, viz economics logic that manager proceeds production innovation, discuss the related factors that affect the support force of new product development (NPD). The conclusions enunciate that developing suitable new product for customer shall have solid foundation only if factors of supporting new product development are integrated and good atmosphere of supporting enterprises' innovation is established.After have successfully developed a new product, innovators have to decide whether throw in new product market and when throw in a market completely. The optimal opportunity of introducing the new product to market is one of the main factors that affect the success or failure about NPD. Set out from different assumption that take investment in product trial sale and revenue from product trial sale as two stochastic processes, this paper builds a decision model of NPDM based-on flexibility, gives a decision criterion, and all-round discusses the influence of parameters on option value...