Analysis And Application Research On Technical Risk Of Complex Product Development

With the quick development of information technology and acceleration of economic globalization, enterprises' competition is increasingly vigorous. The competition of enterprises comes down to the strife of their new products. Product innovation has already become the nucleus tasks of enterprises. Because the development of the large-scale complicated innovated products has traits: high investment, complex techniques, long development cycle and high risk, the technique management of the risk including analysis, assessment and control of risk must be enforced in order to development of the new products is successful.The technical risk is the one of the main risks during the development of large-scale complicated innovated products. The current technical risk analysis mostly belongs to the static analysis methods that are used for risk forecast or its assessment before the startup of product development. But the technical risk management is a process that is concurrent to the development process and has already become the important part of the project management. The research on the technical risk of product development is lack of the exact definition and research on risk analysis and assessment. Backgrounded as the 863 Project of the Tenth Five period "100 run stepping and scanning lithographic machine with 193 nm ArF quasimolecule laser" which is supported by the State Ministry of Science and Technology, the model of the technical risk analysis is established, and the model of technical risk assessment is set up based on Bayesian Network.The following are the main works in this paper:View from the analysis and control the technical risk of product development, the technical risk is defined and analytical model based on product configuration dimension and developing process dimension is established. Product complicacy mainly results in technical risk on product configuration dimension; inordinance of developing process is the main causes of technical risk on the developing process dimension. The architecture of technical risk management during product developing is formed based on two-dimension analytical model.When technical risk on the product configuration dimension is analyzed, technical risk events are found by construing product unexpected behavior that is unsatisfied with its functions, i.e. product function faults. The technical risk factors are seeked by decomposing the product structure. The analytical model of product technical risk on the product configuration dimension is constituted by associating its technical risk events are with its risk factors.Product technical risk, that is a process matched with product developing process, is gradually analyzed from simple to detail, from high layers to lower layers. The technical risk is analyzed on the system level in the beginning of the product developing; with the further development of the product, the technical risk can be analyzed on sub-system level, assembly level, technics level or manufacturing level.When technical risk on developing process dimension is analyzed, technical risk of developing process is analyzed from the view of managing the developing process. The technical risk factors inside each developing activity are searched by it. The interrelation among developing activities depends on the requirements of product developing information, so the technical risk factors among them are raked by analyzing the interrelation among them. The technical risk inside and among developing activities compose the analytical model of the technical risk on developing process dimension.The product behaviors or the ones of developing process and product environments or the ones of developing process interact and produce the risk events. Their risk severities depend on technical risk factors and environments. The analytical model of technical risk on the product configuration dimension and the one on developing process dimension are transformed into technical risk assessment model based on Bayesian Network because of its reasoning function of uncertain information combined with experts' knowledge. The related arithmetic on two dimensions is put forward. The sensitive factors of the technical risk, which technical risk is controlled according as, will be found by sensitivity analysis.As background of development of the high-precision stepping and scanning lithographic machine whose developing experience the developers are lack of, the technical risk theories, methods, techniques which are brought forward in this dissertation, are verified by the case study and applying of them into it.In the finality, the problems requiring further studies are discussed.