Research On Formation Mechanism And Warning Control In Marketing Risk

Taking the thinking of system science as the basis of understanding, the dissertation studies the risk of enterprise from the view of marketing. The conclusion can be drawn that three main reasons lead to marketing risk. They are sudden change in the circumstance of marketing, oscillation in marketing system and invalid of marketing management. Further, the formation mechanism is proposed. The uncertenty in the circumstance of marketing will lead to unregular volatility in marketing system. If invalid of marketing management happen, the volatility can not be controlled effectively. Immidiatly, the volatility will change into unregular oscillation, which will lead to marketing risk in the end. To improve degree of reliability and reduce degree of marketing risk,"Three degree"management thinks, which includes fitness to marketing circumstance, security of marketing system and validity of marketing management, is proposed in the paper. At the same, the model is devised for estimate degree of reliability and marketing risk, which provide theory basis for seting up goal of marketing risk management and establishing system of warning control.Based on recognizing marketing risk, the risk is devided into macro marketing risk and micro marketing risk. The index system of macro and micro marketing risk for evaluating is established in the dissertation. In accordance with the fact that the impact has high risk and is difficult to be evaluated, method of"97 network perception judgement"is used to assess macro marketing risk. Prominent component analysis and time delay test are applied into measuring micro marketing risk, and AHP is utilized to determine the weights in micro marketing risk. The author considers that it is necessary to do quantity of first-phase preparations for warning marketing risk. FA-BP model for evaluating marketing risk is established through fuzzy theory combined with neural network. After the expert knowledge introduced into the process of marketing risk measuring, the system has the ability of deeling with nolinear and uncertainty problem. Intellectlize in measuring is based on the ability of self-learning, self-adapt and generalization in neural network. Our methods have been put into practice in many specific industries and enterprises.On the basis of time lag analysis, advanced indexes about marketing risk are forecasted through ARMA model and Monte-Carlo simulation. Risk rank and degreeof warning are determined by probability partition for industry marketing risk, which is important to deel with nonlinear and complicated problem in marketing risk. Combining marketing engineering and control technic, the author devises the mode of warning control for marketing risk. The character of marketing risk decision is analyzed in detail. The common method of marketing risk controlling and the countermeasure to improve the ability of resisting marketing risk are proposed in the end.