The Research On Early-Warning System Of Marketing Channel Risk Based On BP ANN Model

THIS THESIS TAKES THE RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF MARKETING CHANNEL AS THE OBJECT OF STUDY,TRYING TO ESTABLISH AN INTELLIGENT EARLYING-WARNING SYSTEM OF MARKETING CHANNEL. It RESEARCHES ON THE RISK OF MARKETING CHANNEL,BASED ON THE MARKETING CHANNEL MANAGEMENT THEORY AND ECONOMIC EARLY-WARNING THEORY. THE MAIN CONTENTS ARE AS FOLLOWING:Firstly,this thesis analyzes the types of marketing channel risk and the inducement to marketing channel manangment,then establish the inducement system of risk.Based on the system, a questionnaire has been designed.Through making statistic analysis on the results of questionnaire.After eliminating and categorizing the inducement,inducement system has been proposed. According to the index system design strategy,this thesis indexes the inducement factor of marketing channel risk on the basis of scientific analysis of the inducement of marketing channel.Besides,every index has been discussed to make the information of the marketing channel risk display.And then allowing for the characteristics of marketing channel and the defect of alert model at present,the thesis build three layer structure(22-10-4) Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network model. And using the data of a related enterprise verifies the early-warning model,the results show that Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network model can finish the early-warning work.At last, the thesis designs and analyzes briefly the comprehensive and single early-warning signal output method , finally gives the correspondingly management strategies.