With advancement of economy globalization and information degree and China had joined the World Tourism Organization (WTO) as its economy durative high-speed development; the marketing competition becomes more and more scorching. Enterprises are up against not only numerous domestic competitor but also overseas MultiNational Corporation (MNC). The enterprises'operation risk is gradually brought people's attention. Furthermore, the market economy is in developing phase in China, the market credit system is not perfect, and the credit level is low, the external market environment is disordered, all these make enterprises face more uncertainty. At the same time, the research and practice on marketing risk management have much blankness and scarcity in academia and enterprises in china compares with developed country. The qualitative analysis is more studied than quantitative analysis. So it's very necessary to study theory and method of marketing risk management that fit our country by combining with marketing risk of enterprises in China.Based on"The marketing risk study of Tianjin Steel Pipe Ltd.",this dissertation puts forward principle model, three-dimensional stochastic measure model, to analyze marketing risk in a creative way with theory contacting practice. At the same time, the theory of blind fault tree was applied in marketing risk evaluation. The quantitative problem of marketing risk management for modern enterprises was studied systemically as follow.(1) Under the conditions of marketing theory developing rapidly and polarization, it is studied for modern enterorises how to established a set of perfect marketing risk management system in order to advance a set of management of marketing risk includeing whole process of risk identification, evalution, alarm and control.(2) The foundation and measure problem of quantitative model for enterprises marketing risk was researched. The instructional principle of risk qualtification and the basic frame of quantitative model foundation were studied. And the three-dimensional stochastic measure model is put forward for marketing risk, under which to establish quantitative principle and method of risk identification , evalution, alarm and control, besides the research on application of blind fauld tree on marketing risk alarm model.
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