Research On Transmission Planning Methodology And Investment Analysis In The Electricity Market Environment

Introducing the competition and push market-oriented deregulation are the tendency of the electric power sector all over the world. In the electricity market, the transmission sector faces some great changes in the environment because the generation and transmission sectors are divided into two independent departments. So the traditional transmission planning methodology, model and analysis theory are not suitable for the market condition. It is of great significance for theory and practice research on the transmission planning methodology and investment theory. This dissertation focuses on the research on the transmission optimization planning methodology, theory and transmission investment theory. The main contents are as fellows:The transmission planning problem in the environment of deregulation is divided into three aspects: the uncertain transmission planning, generation/transmission harmonious expansion planning and multi-periods transmission planning. The improved scene analysis method, unascertained number based transmission planning method and Multi-Agent System negotiation and auction based transmission planning method are proposed in the research on uncertain transmission planning. The definitions of two expand transmission lines, which are the core expand transmission line and variational expand transmission line, are defined. The harmonious expansion planning model is proposed to conform the generation and transmission expansion planning and the resolving method is based on two-periods planning and decision technology. The experience framework based on Experimental Economics is designed for the first time in the research on multi-periods transmission planning.The actual transmission planning is the synthesis of all the individual planning and the planning results should be the transmission lines sets which can satisfy all the planning objects. So any single transmission planning method or model is not accurate. The Intelligent Engineering is a theory framework which integrates general intelligent methods. The dissertation introduces the Intelligent Engineering in the transmission planning and proposed the concepts of Intelligent optimization theory,α-optimized solution, comparison theory,α-optimized solution theory, and intelligent engineering algebra, moreover two intelligent operators and their operation quality are defined for the first time.The transmission investment encouragement mechanism has considerable effect onthe transmission capacity. Two transmission investment encouragement mechanisms, controlled based and market based, are analysed in the dissertation. And the optimum transmission investment lever is proposed. The arithmetic based on the nucleolus solution in cooperation game theory and Multi-Agent System is proposed to figure out the sunk cost recovery and allocation in the cooperation investment, consequently the problems that there are no optimum result or multi results are solved.The transmission price belongs to the investment encouragement scheme and can be divided into two parts to investigate. In the research of the regional transmission price, the transmission charge should be based on the average of the node price in the region. The transmission network between two regions is taken as an example to analysis the situation of balance and unbalance between electric power demand and supply. In the research on the margin cost pricing, the long term margin cost pricing, which have plentiful economic information, can encourage the investment on the transmission sector and recover the sunk cost. The margin cost pricing model based on the Lagrange operators is proposed in the dissertation.The economy of the Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission line is controversial in the transmission planning in our country now. The dissertation puts emphases on the economy comparison between UHV and other two substitute energy transmission manners, coal transportation and natural gas transportation, with the technology economics methodology. The research is based on the current energy transmission situation in our country through the comparison of the resource usage efficiency,fuel cost and exterior cost.