The Study Of Trend Of Sino Indonesia Bilateral Trade Relationship

In the past, the economic relationship between Indonesia and China had not been smooth, mainly due to political reasons. However, increased integration of China into the world market after joining of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Asian Pacific Economic Corporations (APEC), ASEAN + China provides the opportunity for an economic relationship that is more detached from politics. As China becomes more integrated into the world market, Indonesia as well as global economies will reap the benefits from a more open trade partner. Furthermore, China and Indonesia - in 2005 had- signed a joint declaration for a "strategic partnership", signaling a new determination on both sides to further consolidate bilateral ties. One of the aspects of strategic partnership is economic cooperation. The two sides agreed to expand trade cooperation, aimed at increasing the annual bilateral trade volume to US$20 billion in 2008 and US$30 in 2010.By using Indonesia and China historical trade data, and MSE as parameter; then applied Double Exponential Smoothing to do forecasting of 2008 and 2010 trade volume, and the results show that in trade target still in the range of the forecasting results. Later on, applying ABC analysis to find out top ten of export import data then summarized them to find out with commodity have the stability being the export import commodity for the whole period of export and import. Finally using Stepwise regression analysis to create export and import regression equation for Indonesia and China Bilateral Trade Relationship.As the result, crude oil to be refined, other palm oil, and (wood, beaded, moulded of non coniferous of cempaka, kapur, keruihg) commodities were chosen as the independent variable of export regression model and other structure of iron or steel, unwrought refined lead, and apples fresh commodities were chosen as the independent variables of import regression model. Finally, these commodities could become the priority by the both country government, it could be through government stimuli policy to revitalize the increasing of export and import of these commodities.