The Research On The Path-dependence In The Process Of The Evolution Of Industry

The process of industrial changes manifested that more and more obvious traits of its complexity in the current trend of industrial ecology, information and mixture. In all of these, path dependence is the most typical representative. However, new—classic economics can't grasp the essence of industrial process on the base of time of reversibility and hypothesis of systematical nullity, so people need one new theoretical frame to analyze the issue. From the angle, the study tried to use a new economic analytical way to comprehensively elucidate the path dependence in the course of industrial changes and set up a new economic analytical frame for it.On the base of clarifying the concepts of path dependence and industry, the study applied some relevant theories of science of complexity ,systematically analyzed the complexity of process of industrial changes, especially it's systematization, self—organization and chaos. The study tried to analyze the industrial mechanism of path dependence in industrial changes with evolutionary game theory and stochastic process theory, which found that the path dependence in industrial changes is the result of technology and system. Concurrently, the study also found that with the background of industrial ecology, information and mixture, path dependence mainly expressed network effects. The study tried to give a way to withdraw it from the path dependence.Under the above theoretical frame, the study put forward some fundamental measures to withdraw the lock-in of path dependence because of network effects, and which expressed that the future industrial developing ideal way after withdrawal is to develop circular industry.