Study Of The Different Periods Of Chinese Exchange Rate Regime

Since the year of 2002, RMB has faced up a huge pressure of appreciation from some western developed counties, "RMB appreciation", "exchange rate regime selection" have turned to be hot terms. Should RMB be appreciated? is the exchange rate regime of china reasonable now? And how to transfer the current exchange rale regime to the right path? Hundreds of thousands of Study about all these questions have come to being.Which angle should we grasp all these complex and deferent question in a comprehensive way? In this paper, we select the method based in deferent period of times. We put all these questions about RMB exchange rate in 3 deferent period of times: (1) in a short term, it's harmful to have great exchange rate regime reform when the expectation of RMB is still very strong which will affect the stability of RMB . so the main task is to stabilize RMB exchange rate and keep high watch on the hot money which will take advantage of this situation. (2) in a middle term, the comparative freeze exchange rate regime will not keep pace with the development of china's economy when china's economy keep 5-10 years of high speed So china should have active reform of RMB exchange rate regime in order to get suit of the rapid development of economy. (3) in a long term, when china's economy, science and technology, politics developed to a high level, the current unfairable international exchange rate regime will not be suited fir china's international position, so china should search tor a suitable exchange rate regime .Game theory is a very sharp tool to study the social and economic problems. Only if there exist groups with deferent interest, there exist competition , cooperation and coordination, so game theory is indispensable to these study. we attempt to study the questions of RMB exchange rate regime with this tool.In a short term, the main problem is how to cope win the pressure of RMB appreciation which included the game between centre government and hot money and the game between centre government's reputation and it's people, we build a static and complete game model and a dynamic incomplete game model to study the game between centre government and hot money. We build a KMRW game model to study the game between centre government's reputation and it's people.In a middle term, the main problem is how to have a active reform of RMBexchange rate regime in order to get suitable of the rapid development of economy. We build a dynamic incomplete game model based on deferent interest groups and have some valuable conclusions. We also build a signal game model between centre government and deferent interest groups, we prove the mixed equilibrium is exist and have some valuable suggestions.In a long term, the cooperational game between deferent counties is indispensable when they want to build a money union, we also build a cooperational game model to study it and have some valuable proposition and suggestions...