Theory Of Market Power Regulation In Electricity Market And Its Application

With systematically summarizing the theory and practice of market power regulation in domestic and international, to guarantee the effective competition, the theory of the market power regulation in electricity environment has been further investigated, the models for distinguishing and relieving the market power in market design, market analysis, market prewarning, supervise decision-making are proposed. Below are the detailed descriptions of the results attained by the dissertation:1. A model for calculating the proportion of competitive electric quantity in medium and long-term contract electricity market is put forward to ensure the competitive formation of market price, which use the IMRR indices of generation companies to evaluate the market power in electricity market with fully considered the factors of competitor status, market supply and demand situation as well as the units'availability. With a calculating example, it is proved that the proportion of competitive electric quantity calculated by the model proposed can guarantee that there have no generation company has the ability to decide the price of any part of its offered electric quantity in medium and long-term contract transactions, thus guarantees the effective market competition.2. Methods to restrain the market power of generation companies using admittance system and price regulation are discussed. In addition, experience obtained in the domestic and international electricity market shows that many external factors can form market power too, except characteristics of market share, performance of units and product cost. How generation biding converting with loss and wheeling loss compensation influence the competing fairness which seem have no direct relationship with market power, then the solution in mechanism is proposed.3. The first kind of subordinate collusion contracts (collusion contracts made by agents of generation companies) under two grades Principal-Agent mechanism of electricity market is thoroughly studied in this article. Using equilibrium theory, the influence of colluding behaviors among generation companies to market premium is analyzed, the premium level in direct proportion to the market share of collusion union, in inverse proportion to market demand elasticity. Then the influence of congestion in power network to collusion is analyzed, point out that the occurrence of collusion in regions where power output is limited is usually to prevent the malignant competition, and in regions where power input is limited, collusion is usually to pursue the high monopoly profit.4. Legal basis for regulating the colluding behaviors in electricity market of China is studied, and a negative incentive mechanism for effectively restraining the colluding behaviors with existing technical level is put forward, which will guarantee the expect punishment of colluding union greater than expect profit, it will effectively restrain the collusion motive. The model proposed can also be used to regulate other market power conductions.5. The static characteristic of HHI does not meet the particularity of the electric goods; it is unable to describe the dynamic structural characteristic of the electricity market. The exiting market power measure indexes are improved ,and a layered index system for evaluating the electricity market structure is put forward which is based on power flow analyze and includes the influence of transmission loss and power exchange among different load areas or congestion areas. Through establishing layered index curve of real time, it can reflect the influence factors of location, network restriction, operation mode, which may affect generation companies to exert the market power. The Index system can be used to assist the supervision department to evaluate and analyze the potential market power degree in electric market.6. According to the SCP analysis frame (market structure, market behavior, market performance) in the industrial economics, construct index systems to evaluate the market power level of the entire market and the market power of specified generation company separately. Then, a fuzzy hierarchy comprehensive evaluation method is put forward to evaluate the market power warning levels of the market, congestion areas and specified generation companies in real time. According to the evaluating result of SCP, paint the monitor map with different colors and make corresponding supervision decision to the link of problem in time. Finally, using the historical market data of a real electricity market, it is proved that the market power warning and surveillance decision-making mechanism based on SCP model proposed in this article can effectively identify the market power level of S, C, P and the tactical bidding behaviors of generation companies.7. Introduce market power evaluating indices of Icsr(capacity sufficient rate) and Imrr(must run rate) as the external variables into the electricity market price risk prewarning, using Icsr reflect the whole market state between supply and demand, using Imrr reflect individual generation company's market status. Then, use ARCH and VaR theory for analyzing the price fluctuation in financial market for reference, put forward an electricity price risk prewarning model. The numeric example proved that the model proposed has better prediction precision and can effectively deal with the different variance characteristic of electricity price array.The construction of electricity market in China is still at the beginning stage, we should watch out for the market risk while enjoying the advantage brought by marketization. The research results of the dissertation enrich and develop the market power regulation theory; it is significant to the practice of electricity market construction and supervision in China.