Analysis On The Medium Long-term Demand Tendency And Its Structure Of China's Electric Power Market

Electric power is one of the most essential energy resources, and plays an important guarantee function to maintaining rapid economic development and improving people's living in China. In recent years, electric power supply and demand have been in a state of extremely unbalanced in some regional areas, especially in the developed east past of China, electric power supply can hardly meet the requirements of economic development, and seriously restraints the development of economy. Thus, in the light of China's national situations, based on fully considering the dynamic relations among energy resource, environment, economy and enterprise's economic results, to accurately analyze and master the long-term demand tendency and structure of electric power market, will surely be of great practical significance to China's electric power industry in formulating a scientific, rational long-term development plan, and to the nation in effectively carrying out macro-economic adjustment and control. Firstly, this thesis systematically analyzes the supply-demand structure of China's electric power market, the structure of power generation sources, the distribution of electric power industry, and the relations between electric power industry and economic development, etc.; On the basis of this, the thesis deeply analyzes the main factors affecting China's electric power supply-demand and the key reason causing the regional supply-demand conflicts, by combining the power market-orientation theory and power operational model theory; Then, by using quantitative forecast methods including linear regression, gray model forecast and 3-order auto-regression, together with qualitative forecast method of trend analysis, the thesis analyzes the medium and long-term development tendency of China's electric power, and in particular, places the emphasis on the analysis and prediction of China's electric power demand from 2004 to 2020; At last, the thesis comes up with some countermeasures and suggestions for future development of China's electric power industry, such as to vigorously develop thermal power, to take developing hydropower as focal point, to enhance installed capacity of nuclear power, to heighten hydropower capacity in south-west region, etc., by combining with the forecast results of power generation and installed capacity. Furthermore, the thesis also puts forwards relevant solutions to the adjustment and optimization of electric power resource structure and space distribution, operational model of power industry, power market-orientation and interconnection of power networks. There are five chapters in the thesis, respectively introduces the research significance of long-term prediction of electric power demand, and the evolution and present situations of China's electric power industry; illustrates the theories and methods of long-term power demand prediction; analyses the supply-demand structure of power market; analyzes and forecast the medium and long-term supply-demand of power market; brings forward the solutions to solve China's long-term power supply-demand contradiction. It is expected that the research conclusion be able to provide certain reference to China's electric power industry in formulating a scientific long-term development plan, and to the nation in effectively carrying out macro-economic adjustment and control.