Research On Modern Technology Assessment Theory And Methods

Science and technology developed rapidly, but negative effects always obviously emerged after have been applied for a long time, that make people deal with the technology and its outcome more and more difficultly. For take advantage of the technology more effectively and reduce or prevent the possible negative impact on society and environment, that need intuitional and straightforward understanding and control of a technology and its result, then a new research occur in USA, that is technology assessment. In the beginning, technology assessment that as an early warning tool of assess the negative effect of a technology play a positive role. But in practice technology assessment often fall into the so-called Collingridge dilemma.Recent years, the development of modern science and technology is rapid, especially emerging technologies have a very important effect on society and economy. There are many differences between modern and traditional science and technology. The new characters of modern science and technology challenge the traditional methods, the theory and method of technology assessment need developed. Modern science and technology assessment content science,technology and social technology, it is Future-oriented assessment and management study, and it is an assessment that based on the process.Science is the direct antecedent of many, if not most, new technologies, so there should be substantial value in doing science assessments in terms of their implications when developed into technologies. Science assessment would also lead to a more conscious awareness of the tracks and paths by which a scientific development may move into practical use. Although science assessments may be more spare, more conceptual, and less definitive than a technology assessment, their social utilities should be quite high. The borderline of modern science and technology is not clearly and distinctly, activities of science and activities of technology are complicated and integrated, activities of technology begin in the early period of science development. So the borderline of technology assessment and science assessment also so clearly like before. Science and technology become the content of assess. S&T assessment content should also include social technologies. It is recognized and acknowledged that social technologies have enormous influence and role to people, and social technologies affect every aspect of our world. The content of traditional technology assessment mostly is physical technologies, and is those technologies that can apply and developed to products. The layer of assessment is applied layer, the level is not high. Modern S&T is the content of assessment, and the range of assessment is expands and level is upgrade. The consequences of technologies are essentially a function of the nature and extent in which they are used, rather than of the technology itself. Human behavior cannot ultimately be predicted with certainty. But it is important to long-term forecasting and assessment that forecast the nature and extent of the use of a given S&T in a specific society and Human behaviors. Science and technology, on balance, expand and affirm human rights.Modern science and technology present"dimensional prolongation"and"temporal prolongation". Dimensional prolongation means science and technology disrupt geographical and sciences dimensions, and unite every possibility. Dimensional prolongation makes activities of science and technology to involve general relations. Temporal prolongation means present activities can greatly influence future, high risk and uncertain of the aftereffect of science and technology are more and more visualized. Temporal prolongation unites and relates history and future. The main traits of future-oriented study are the unknowable and uncertainty of decision-making. It is hard to imagine the consequences of science and technology before it occurs. Future developments of importance are currently unknown but discoverable or intrinsically unknowable. But some of these undiscoverable evens may turn out to be the most important aspects of the future. So how to reduce the domain of the unknowable and deal with the unknowable are important to the science and technology future study. The unknowable and uncertainty makes the influence of potential discontinuity of future is great. The aim of STS management is to explore potential discontinuity of future. An important function of science and technology management is the exploration of potential discontinuity. The management of disruptive technology recognized and developed in recent years. Those technologies are very different with the traditional sustaining technologies, so they are different in assessment and management, in order to play an effect role. Because of the growing complexity of our society and the traits of future, S&T disruption is intrinsic, is not accidental, is unavoidable, and is not a failure of preparation or learning. Modern science and technology, especially the emerging technology, are almost the disruptive science and technology, so traditional methods of assessment and management are not suitable, develop new,suitable methods is an important part of science and technology assessment.This paper researches on the modern science and technology assessment theory systemic. Modern science and technology assessment theory system include three levels, this paper carry on a deep investigation into those, especially into the mid-level. High-level equates to the overall methodology and relative theories, those can give directions. Mid-level is the most essential and pivotal part. This paper detailed research on the assessment assessor, object, aim, content, criterion, process and function theory. This paper also study of the intelligence that modern science and technology assessment needed and public participate in the assess process. In modern science and technology theory, the mid-level should stress developed, and construct a frame to give directions for science and technology assessment actives. Having practice based on the mid-level theory, then incessantly developed the mid and high levels, that is the certain trend for modern science and technology assessment theory study.Modern science and technology assessment should attach importance to assess process, and the process is a broad concept that include pre- and after actives such as the occasion or time that bring forward assessment and assess the result. During the process management and quality control are needed and necessary. Modern science and technology assess is a dynamic process, an incessant adjust and recurrent process. The analysis process and result are both important to modern science and technology assessment.Modern science and technology developed rapidly, and the database of modern science and technology is expanding too. The enormous and mussy database make people can not use the database effectively, many information are neglected. Modern science and technology assessment must make use of this database, so it is important for assessment to obtain useful intelligence and choose the appropriate methods. This paper studies some future-oriented analysis methods such as technology mining, technology monitoring and roadmap.Modern science and technology assessment is a system with more expended content and it need correspond with technology forecasting in order to play its role.