Research On The Evaluation And Control Of Credit Guarantee Risk

The Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) plays an essential role in aCountry's economy, lacking of credit and capital is the main difficulty for SMEs'development currently. Credit Guarantee can improve the credit environment and theSMEs' credit which is one of the first necessities to support SMEs by the banks.Credit Guarantee is known as one industry with high risk internationally, the riskproblem of Credit Guarantee is the World difficult problem. China's Credit Guaranteeis still in the initial developing stage and supports SMEs mianly which embody thenation's supporting policy in a degree, whose high risk characteristic is especiallyobvious. Therefore, it is the most important to evaluate and control the CreditGuarantee risk professionally for the healthy development of China's Credit Guarantee,and which is the objective of this dissertation.The dissertation analyses the operating mechanism of Credit Guarantee, thefunction of Credit Guarantee institution, the essential features and formation of CreditGuarantee risk with the Financial Transactions Theory, Risk Shifting Theory andAsymmetric InformationTheory at the beginning; it analyses the reason of CreditGuarantee risk and analyses the agent of Credit Guarantee risk with the Game Theoryand Asymmetric InformationTheory, probes the conduction process and conductionroute of Credit Guarantee risk.The evaluation of Credit Guarantee project risk and Credit Guarantee institutionoverall risk are the important in the dissertation.The dissertation sets up the evaluationindex system of Credit Guarantee project risk under the SMEs' special feature and thesupporing policy of Gurantee institution to the developing enterprises, evaluate theproject risk by the methods of Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation andValue-at-Risk model which are proved to be scientific and adaptive by the cases study;It points out the concept of Credit Guarantee institution overall risk, analyses it by theAssets Combinatorial Theory and evaluates it by the methods of Value-at-Risk model and Conditional Value-at-Risk model.The dissertation builds up the project risk early-warning model with the Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and the overall risk early-waming model bythe Guarantee institution's general risk weighted assets and capital adequacy ratio.The dissertation also set up the all-round risk administrative system for CreditGuarantee, studys the oppose guarantee measures, the reasonable desigh of guaranteeparameter and guarantee combination for the control of Credit Guarantee risk; itdiscusses the "guarantee exchange option"and the innovation of Credit Guaranteebusiness which disperse the Credit Guarantee risk; it also points out the way toimprove the environment of Credit Guarantee law, the way to build up the riskcompensative mechanism and the tactic for the development of SMEs'credit system.