Research On Ecological Vulnerability Change And Interaction Development Model Of Economy And Ecology In Sanjiangyuan Region

With human social and economic activities and global change intensifying, the ecological environmental vulnerability increased notably in ecological vulnerability area, which restricted regional development of society and economy. The practice of economic development and ecological construction needs interacting and win-wining in ecological vulnerability areas and depressed areas. As a typical ecological sensitive area and peculiar ecological function area, Sanjiangyuan Region is "Ecological Valve" influenced ecological security of our country even the world and the most laggard region of economic development level in our country, while the condition of ecological deterioration is austere, ecological refugees are more and more year by year, the contradiction of population, resources, environment and development is outstanding increasingly. So there are great scientific value and practical significance to carry out research on ecological vulnerability change and interaction of economy and ecology, to discuss ecological environmental evolvement laws and man-made influence, interaction mechanism, model and industry policies of economic development and ecological construction in Sanjiangyuan Region.Using practical measurement data and statistical data, applying the methods, such as Excel and SPSS software, figure and table analysis, multi-regression analysis, Principal Component Analysis, Grey Relation Analysis and differentiation function and so on, to analyze ecological change characteristics, to imitate runoff change and analyze man-made influence degree on it, to assess ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity of every county and analyze interaction degree and interaction relationship types between them, to discuss interaction mechanism and model of economy and ecology in Sanjiangyuan Region. Through analysis and research, the following several important conclusions are gotten:(1) Temperature has increase trend, precipitation has decrease trend and evaporation has faint decrease trend and climate has different change trend in different period in Sanjiangyuan Region in the recent 47 years. Average temperature increase rate is 0.0195 centigrade per year and it increased by 0.7 centigrade. Temperature increased by 0.8 and 0.5 centigrade respectively in cold and warm season. Contribution rate in temperature increase is 61.54 percent in cold season. Temperature decreased successively from the periphery to the central section. Average precipitation decrease rate is 0.4449 millimeters per year and it reduced by 28.8 millimeters. Average precipitation increase rate is 0.3436 millimeters per year in arid season and average precipitation decrease rate is 0.459 millimeters per year in humid season. Contribution rate in precipitation decrease is 92.55 percent in humid season. Precipitation reduced successively from the southeast to the northwest. Average evaporation decrease rate is 0.635 millimeters per year, 0.6471 and 0.3815 millimeters per year respectively in arid and humid season. Evaporation reduced successively from the southwest to the northeast in the source region of Yangtze River and from the north to the south in the source of Yellow River. Climate has warm and humid trend in the recent 47 years, warm and arid trend since 1990s' and warm and humid trend in the recent 5 years.(2) According to the cumulation curve of runoff, human activities influenced lightly on runoff before 1982. Runoff is imitated through multi- linear regression, the model of runoff in the year of Huangheyan and Jimai are y=87.6827+0.0129x₁+3.2988x₂—0.0615x3, y=164.8666+0.076X₁+4.6895x₂—0.116x₃ respectively (x₁, x₂ and x₃ are average precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the year respectively in the source drainage basin of Yellow River), the model of runoff in the month of Tangnaihai and Zhimenda are y=44.969+2.4826X₁—0.059x₂—0.2293x₃, y =13.634+1.0854x₁ +0.0965x₂—0.1203x₃ respectively (x₁ x₂ and x₃ are average temperature, precipitation and evaporation in the month respectively in Xinghai / Yushu county). The influence degree of human activities on runoff had increase trend after 1983. The influence degrees of human activities are all under 50 percent in Jimai and Tangnaihai and from 50 percent to 80 percent in Huangheyan in most year, which indicated that the magistral factor which influenced runoff change is natural factor in the east and artificial factor in the west in the source of Yellow River.(3)The ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity of every county are assessed. Ecological vulnerability degree increased successively from the periphery to the middle part. Poverty degree decreased successively from the south to the north and from the west to the east in the source of Yangtze River and increased successively from the central section to the periphery in the source of Yellow River. Human activity intensity decreased successively from the northeast to the southwest in the source of Yangtze River and from the southeast to the northwest in the source of Yellow River. Ecological environment of Maduo, Chengduo and Qumalai three counties belongs to exceeding vulnerability (ecological vulnerability degrees are from 0.8 to 1.0), Zhiduo, Gande and Maqin three counties belongs to intense vulnerability (0.6～0.8), Zeku, Dari and Zaduo three counties belongs to moderate vulnerability (0.4～0.6), Tongde, Jiuzhi, Henan, Xinghai and Banma five counties belongs to low-grade vulnerability (0.1～0.4), Yushu and Nangqian two counties belongs to slender vulnerability (-0.2～0.1). Economic development level of Zaduo one county belongs to exceeding poverty (poverty degree is from 0.5 to 0.6), Dari, Zhiduo, Chengduo and Zeku four counties belongs to intense poverty (0.4～0.5), Gande and Qumalai two counties belongs to moderate poverty (0.3～0.4), Nangqian, Tongde, Henan, Xinghai and Banma five counties belongs to low-grade poverty (0.2～0.3), Jiuzhi, Yushu, Maduo and Maqin four counties belongs to slender poverty (-0.6～0.2). Human activities of Tongde, Maqin, Zeku and Xinghai four counties belong to exceeding fierceness (human activity intensities are from 1.4 to 0.8), Henan, Banma and Yushu three counties belong to intense fierceness (0.8～0.5), Gande, Jiuzhi and Nangqian three counties belong to moderate fierceness (0.5～0.4), Chengduo, Maduo and Dari three counties belong to feeblish fierceness (0.4～0.2), Qumalai, Zaduo and Zhiduo three counties belong to slender fierceness (0.2～0.1).(4)The academic problems on interaction development relationship of ecology and economy are discussed primarily and the new conceptions are put forward, such as interaction development idea, interaction chain, interaction circle, interaction network and balanceable interaction and so on. The types of interaction are compartmentalized from different angles and the interaction structure is researched such as the route, phases, motivity, conditions and approaches of interaction development relationship of ecology and economy, interaction approaches include mostly industrial interaction, system interaction and devotion interaction.(5) The differentiation function of interaction degree of ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity Cxy=(x+Y)/ (x and y are ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity respectively) is built. It indicated that there is strong negative interaction relationship between them. The interaction relationship type of ecological vulnerability and poverty of Maqin and Maduo two counties belongs to vulnerable non-harmony, Nangqian one county belongs to poor non-harmony and another 13 counties belongs to exceeding non-harmony. The interaction relationship type of human activity intensity and poverty of Maqian and Maduo two counties belongs to man-made interferential poverty, Zhiduo one county belongs to natural poverty and another 13 counties belongs to man-made exacerbating poverty. The interaction relationship type of ecological vulnerability and human activity intensity of Nangqian one county belongs to man-made interferential vulnerability, Zhiduo one county belongs to natural vulnerability and another 14 counties belongs to man-made exacerbating vulnerability.(6) It need setting up interaction mechanisms of economic development and ecological construction, such as mechanisms of industry replacement and ecology replacement, social investment and financing and multi-management, ecological compensation and benefit-driving, transfer of information and technologies and public participation, synthetical decision-making of ecology and economy and regional interaction. The interaction development Sanjiangyuan pattern of ecology and economy namely "innovation of system and policies + regional interaction + ecological engineering + social harmony + industry replacement": to take adjustment of system, innovation of system, policies and mechanism of organization and management and scientific programming as interaction nodes, ecological industries as interaction tache, through social investment and financing and sustainment of series of policies, to reinforce regional interaction with Xining, Lhasa and Ge'ermu to form triangle interaction network in which Sanjiangyuan is the center and the three cities are culminations, to carry out series of ecological engineering such as ecology immigration, ecological compensation and ecological purchase and so on, to realize property right of ecological capital and industrialization development of ecological construction, to reinforce exploiture of continuous industries and construction of small towns, infrastructure and social service system and cultivation of employment skill, to increase the transfer power of information and technologies to accelerate innovation of technologies to realize industries replacement and ecological alteration of industries, to develop regional characteristic ecological industries, from devotion interaction to system interaction to industries interaction, to realize benign interaction development of ecology and economy.(7) To rely on the line of Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River, special tourism line of age-old Tangbo road (namely 214 national highway) and car exploration tourism line of the world fastigium (namely 109 national highway) to reinforce construction of small towns along the lines to foster spatial or industrial increase poles to form economic development pattern of "The three rivers and two lines" crossover. To empolder regional characteristic preponderant resources to foster and develop ecological tourism industry, characteristic biological industries such as industry of Chinese traditional and Tibet medicinal materials, processing industry of livestock products, characteristic planting industry, grass industry, green foodstuff industry and aquiculture industry, nationality industries such as nationality handicraft industry, nationality trade and nationality culture industry, ecological energy sources industries such as exploiture of mineral, firedamp, enhydrous electricity, solar energy and wind energy, to set up regional characteristic ecological economy system.Innovation points: (1)Through imitation inartificial runoff in the source of Yellow River and assessment man-made influence degree on it, man-made influence degree is lower than 50 percent in the east, and from 50 to 80 percent in the west.(2)Through research on interaction structure, the new conceptions are put forward, such as interaction development idea, interaction chain, interaction circle, interaction network and balanceable interaction.(3) Through analysis of regional environment and development level of Sanjiangyuan Region, interaction degree of ecological vulnerability degree, poverty degree and human activity intensity is assessed and interaction relationship type between them is differentiated, there are strong negative interaction relationship between ecology and economy and human activities and it needs to set up positive interaction mechanism and pattern.(4) Through analysis of regional structure, according to the characteristic of orbicular distribution and the triangular radiation environment of the three circumjacent cities, interaction development Sanjiangyuan pattern of ecology and economy and characteristic ecological economic development pattern of "The three rivers and two lines" crossover.interaction mechanism interaction degree ecological vulnerability change Sanjiangyuan pattern Sanjiangyuan RegionFoundation: Great "Gong Guan" Project on Philosophy and Social Science of Education Ministry "Research on Economic Development and Ecological Environmental Reconstruction in the West", No. 04JZD00010...