Study On Influencing Factors And Regulation Of Urban Housing Price Fluctuation

With the rapid developing of society and economy in China, people's life-level improved day after day. As a necessity that is closed to the people's lives, the housing got more attentions.It's more than eight years since the capitalization reform of housing distribution implemented in 1998. In the past eight years, our country's housing market developed very fast. And the new housing supply system is formed, of which common commodity housing is the main part, the economic suitable housing and the high-level commodity housing are the indispensable complement. At the same time the housing-leasing market and the second-hand building trade market also gradually strengthened.The housing market grow fast accompanied the housing price rising rapidly. Flying housing price, especially after 2004, has brought many unstable factors to people's lives and society development. Therefore it is necessary for us to study the housing price farther.This article analyses the impact factors of housing price from supply and demand of housing, and draws a conclusion that demand deficiency compared supply is the main reason that caused housing price increasing. From the impact factors and characters of housing price fluctuation, we divide the housing price fluctuation into normal fluctuation and abnormal fluctuation, and put forward direct methods and indirect methods of distinguishing abnormal fluctuation of housing price. Based on the statistics theories and Pauta rule, we find the method of ascertaining the abnormal fluctuation scope, and bring forward conception of abnormal fluctuation tendency coefficient. After studying housing price changing, we can distinguish whether the abnormal fluctuation appeared, and find optimum opportunity for government to regulate housing price.According to the growing stage law and region characters of real estate market, we put forward the idea of regulation by region on the basis of our country's present housing market situation. We can regulate the housing price by different level and different steps to achieve shot-term and long-term purposes.This article is composed of eight chapters aggregately and divided into four parts on structure. The contents are as followed:The first part is the paper's foundation, including the first chapter and the second chapter. The first chapter briefly introduces research background, research object and scope, and research purpose. On the basis of domestic and overseas research result of housing price influencing factors and regulations, we clarify the studying field and content further. The second chapter introduces some correlated basic theories, such as growing stage law, region characters of real estate market, housing price characters, forming and fluctuation of housing price and real estate market regulation etc.The second part includes the third chapter, the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter. This part analyses those factors that influence housing price fluctuating from three aspects: supply factors, demand factors and other factors, and emphasizes the influence of influenced factors changing to housing price fluctuation. The third chapter has studied housing price fluctuation relation of housing supply quantity and supply structure, land supply quantity, land supply price and so on. The fourth chapter discusses some factors influenced housing price fluctuation from demand aspect. Those factors that influenced market demand including payment ability, population, expense psychology, urbanization, substitution demands and investment demand and so on. The fifth chapter has studied the influence of financial policy, revenue policy as well as the stock market to the housing price fluctuation.The third part includes the sixth chapter and the seventh chapter. In the sixth chapter, from the impact factors and characters of housing price fluctuation, we divide housing price fluctuation into normal fluctuation and abnormal fluctuation, and put forward direct methods and indirect methods of distinguishing abnormal fluctuation of housing price, and also bring forward conception of abnormal fluctuation tendency coefficient. Analyze land price fluctuation in Japan by changing rate method and study housing price fluctuation in our country from 1997 by resident's purchasing changing method. In the seventh chapter, we put forward the idea of regulation by region on the basis of game playing among government, developer and consumers, overseas regulation experience, real estate market growing law and region characters, and our country's present housing market situation. We can regulate the housing price by different level and different steps to achieve shot-term and long-term purposes.The last part is the eighth chapter. Based on the front contents, this chapter studies housing price fluctuations in Wuhan, and puts forward countermeasure and the suggestion of Wuhan's housing price regulation.