Influencing Factors And Forecast Analysis Of Commercial Housing Price In Tianjin

Under the destocking policy,the national real estate market experienced a sharp rise from 2016 to 2017,and then the central government set the policy of "housing not speculation",followed by multiple cities’ purchase restriction and loan restriction.Tianjin also continued to introduce the purchase restriction policy from 2017.From 2019 to 2020,the real estate in the urban agglomeration with active economies in the south and net inflow of population remained strong and resilient.North China real estate market downward pressure is great.Correspond to the real estate market is the city of macroeconomic growth of population is facing great pressure,tianjin economy grew just 3.6% in2017,at the same time,the trend of population growth,slow it is obvious that this is not good news for the city’s economic development,especially for the real estate market,Because there is a high correlation between the two。This paper firstly defines the concept of commercial housing and the price of commercial housing and expounds the theoretical basis,introduces the development process and current situation of the commercial housing market in Tianjin,and analyzes the challenges facing the current commercial housing market in Tianjin.Then the population control policy,the macroeconomic index of supply and demand factors,cost factors,four class analysis identification of many factors,through the index selection,the primary index of 12 secondary indicators as the research object of empirical analysis of correlation and stepwise regression,the research results show that no obvious influence on the price is the supply and demand relations,On the other hand,the factors that are more strongly correlated are regulation policies,macro-economy,land price and so on.This research result also confirms that there is a great difference between the commercial housing market and the ordinary commodity market described before,mainly because it is affected by strong government intervention and presents obvious characteristics of imperfect competition market.Finally,based on the gray GM(1,1)model,the real estate price of tianjin is predicted.According to the price prediction model,the price of commercial housing in tianjin will basically remain stable and rise slightly in the short term in the future.Gray GM(1,1)model has been applied in a typical real estate enterprise and achieved good results.According to the above research conclusion,combined with the present city background,healthy development Suggestions and Revelations for the tianjin commercial housing market,aiming at government level,the property tax of national top design,several Suggestions to promote the development of tianjin economic and 2021,the government should continue to carry the land price confirmed market expectations and finally for the enterprise,suggest strengthening industry self-discipline,steady development,Quality tree brand premium,Small and medium-sized enterprises should strengthen their operationsenhance competitiveness.