| Dairy industry holds an important position in national economy. Each country attaches importance to the development of dairy industry. Developing countries especial Asia countries put dairy industry as an important measure for improving nutrition and diathesis. For example, Egypt sets dairy industry as primary policy in agricultural development stratagem; India develops "onrush action" in the whole country for developing dairy industry since 1970. China's dairy industry come into being after liberated Since then, China develops dairy industry according to plan. Only 4.7 ten thousand tons dairy production is far from. meeting people's demands. Dairy industry has continuance increase since 1978. But due to market rule, dairy industry fluctuates in 1990's. Dairy products dropped 4.2 percent in 1996 and 2.8 percent in 1998 because of unreasonable dairy products structure and incommensurate market demands. After China' joining WTO, dairy industry will be confronted with drastic competition.Dairy industry comes forth many problems in recent year, such as revivification milk, abortion milk, fresh milk sign. These problems bother China's dairy industry. At the same time, the performance in dairy industry is very low. According to national statistics bureau, profit margin is 6.8 percent, 6.1 percent and 5.4 percent from 2000 to 2004. Profit margin is only 4.9 percent in the front ten dairy enterprises. So much low profit can impact on the development of dairy industry. Therefore, how to enhance dairy industry's performance has became common attention issue for government, enterpriser and scholar. This paper makes the total factor productivity (abbreviation "productivity") to be the research object, investigating the change of total factor productivity and production efficiency with the development of dairy industry, analyzing technical efficiency and it's convergence, finding out factors on technical efficiency. The paper also analyzes the relationship with market structure, conduct and performance, discussing production efficiency impact on the performance, researching into quality and benefit on the development of dairy industry. Therefore, the study will provide decision for policy maker, management. Consequently it will facilitate the development of dairy industry.Based on the productivity theory and industry organization theory, this paper makes the dairy industry's production efficiency and performance to be the research beginning, reviewing the change of total factor productivity(abbreviation "productivity") in dairy industry, analyzing the headspring of dairy industry increase in recent years: efficiency improving or technical progress. Based on this, the paper makes an estimation on the development quality in dairy industry, analyzing some factors on dairy industry efficiency such an stock raising, dairy production consumption, industry accumulation, capital labor ratio, enterprise scale as well as advertisement density and so on. Thereafter, based on productivity convergence theory, the paper also studies technical efficiency convergence. In the end, based on industry organization theory, the paper analyzes the relationship in market structure, conduct and performance, validating whether exists market power hypothesis and efficiency hypothesis or not, researching into cause for influencing on performance of China's dairy industry. In the end is policy and suggestions for the dairy industry development.According to the data set from 1998 to 2005, this paper adopts non-parameter method, drawing a conclusion through necessary demonstration analysis and experiential test.(1) The result of dairy industry's total factor productivity shows: dairy industry's total factor productivity increases by speed of 0.61 percent, technical efficiency declines by speed of 0.08 percent, technical progress has risen by 0.75 percent. Since the decline of technical efficiency can not counteract the rise of technical progress. As a result, the increase of dairy industry productivity is positive. The result also shows that the increase of dairy industry productivity takes on the negative correlation with capital form.(2)Dairy industry' s total factor productivity exist region difference. Total factor productivity of dairy industry in five milk product region and the rest have increased from 1998 to 2005. Thereinto, technical progress is dominant. Big city suburb has increased by the speed of 1.14 percent. The speed is prestissimo in five product region. In the same way, the increase is dominant by technical progress.(3) Using the non-parameter method on technical efficiency in dairy industry, this study shows that technical efficiency increases from 0.8995 in 1998 to 0.9316 in 2005. And that the standard of technical efficiency has risen from 0.0154 in 1998 to 0.0258 in 2005. The result shows that difference of technical efficiency has enlarged. The technical efficiency in milk producing region is higher than the rest. Furthermore, the difference of technical efficiency in non-product region is more distinct.This paper examines the convergence of the whole country, milk producing region and the rest. The result of sigma- convergence indicates that the change trend in these regions is consistent. The standard of technical efficiency converges from 2002 to 2005. It has no absolute convergence tendency from 1998 to 2001. The paper also finds that difference degree in non-milk-producing region is larger than milk-producing region. It indicates that the precursor has achieved technical efficiency chase in milk-producing region. The reason for the convergence is the trade and investment, intercourse with various enterprises. In this way, technology and management experience will flow from developed regions to developing regions. Therefore, technical efficiency takes on convergence.(4) The paper also analyzes the effect on technical efficiency, the results show: in external factor s, transportation has positive on dairy industry's technical efficiency, on the contrary, convergency is negative on it. In inner factors, capital labor ratio, scale, advertising density are all positive on dairy industry's technical efficiency. Besides, improving technology furnishment, increasing technology input can help to improve technical efficiency.(5) The paper adopts sale profit ratio, capital reward ratio, net capital yield, cost profit ratio for estimating dairy industry's performance. As a whole, dairy industry has rapid increase in the recent ten years. For example, total production value has increased from 78.35 to 886.74 a hundred million during the recent ten years. But in the same time, dairy industry comes forth many questions with the scale-up. Many enterprises attach importance to developmental speed, not economical benefit. Thus, dairy product is homogeneous seriously. Name brand products have not reached nameplate effects. And also it does not build up good quality, acceptance specification and fine character products. Thus dairy industry should change from speed to benefit. High speed and low benefits indicate risk. Development precondition is the unification of speed and benefit.In the end, the paper establishes regression model to analyze the relationship with market structure, efficiency and performance of dairy industry, validate market power hypothesis and efficiency structure hypothesis. The results indicate that dairy product market doesn't exist market power hypothesis. In despite of this, improvement of technical efficiency will increase performance of dairy industry. The macro-data analysis shows that dairy product market fulfils efficiency structure hypothesis partly but the micro-data results exist it. Besides, scale spread does not advance performance and market share. That explains partly that dairy industry exist scale spread performance decline.
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