Research On China County Economic Growth Disparity And Its Convergence In China County Economic Macroscopical Management

With the opening and reform, China has a deep transformation on both economy and society. Within the two decades, GDP increases more than 9% annually, which makes China a great achievement on development. However, we should mention that the transformation has not finished yet, not only success but also some conflict emerged. One of the problems is the unbalanced development among regions (regional disparity). There is a great regional disparity in China. In academe, almost all the regional economy research pays much concern to regional disparity. As a special research target, county economy is a kind of regional economy according to the districts. Nowadays, there are more than 2000 counties in China with more than 90% national area and more than 80 population of China. The total product of counties takes more than 50% of GDP. Therefore, someone suggests that county economy is the regional base and basic framework of national economy and plays an important role in China. However, in recent years, the pervasion of county economy disparity is quicker and becomes clear. The disparity among west, middle and east enlarged manly caused by the income disparity. Thus, we should pay much concern and enhance the research on county economy no matter from the course of unrealized industrialization and citilization or the character of economy in China.The dissertation firstly explains the relative theories on economic dissertation, mainly including neo-classical increasing theory, endogenesis increasing theory, technical pervasion thory, which are the base for the demonstration in the next chapters. Then the dissertation gives a primary data statistic analysis on county economic development, which finds the unique characters of county economic development in China, i.e. county, region, level, comprehension and unbalance. The dissertation also provides a statistic analysis for the development disparity of county economy in China from three aspects, the national county economic disparity, the county economic disparity among east, middle and west areas, and the economic disparity between TOP-100 counties and other counties, and gets a conclusion that the county economic increasing disparity in China is great. Furthermore, the dissertation analyze the seven aspects that influence the county economic increasing in China, i.e. capital investment, labor investment, location, industry framework, agricultural development level, citilized level and financial expenditure. With these analysis, the dissertation reflect the economic framework of county development in China with seven indexes, including capital investment, labor investment, etc. according to clustering analysis approach, and divides the counties into three different types according to the economic characters, that is, column I, with high citilization level and capital investment and the percentage of agriculture in GDP is lower, column II, all the indexes are in the middle level, the Column III, with low citilization level and capital investment and the percentage of agriculture in GDP is higher. The result hereby is different from the results of prior exoerts. Differed from the division of east, middle and west areas, the economic structure of the counties in the dissertation is much more similar and fixed the condition of club constringency.Using Panel Data model to have a demonstration research for the dissertation of county economic development disparity from 1989 to 2004, and gets several significant conclusions: (1) There is aαtrend in county economic increasing disparity in China, there is also a emanative trend in county economy during theexamination of absoluteβ. (2) The county economic disparity of column I has aαtrend, but has a clear club constringency. (3) The county economic disparity of column II has aαtrend, but has no club constringency. (4) The county economic disparity of column III has both a clearαtrend and club constringency.As there is no constringency in China and the county economic increasing disparity of column II, the dissertation does research on the county economic increasing constringency mechanism of both column I and column III by using Dowrick-Rogers analysis framework. According to the research, both of these two columns have the mechanism of neo-classical increasing theory and neo-economy increasing theory. As the opening degree and marketilization degree is much higher, they always learn something from doing tasks. While the opening degree of regions in column III is the lowest in China, they mainly follow the successful experiences of column I. Then, the dissertation also has a brief analysis on the impact from FDI, marketilization and labor cost, etc, to technical pervasion and transition, and makes a basic judgment for further development trend.At last, it gives several suggestions to the county economic development in China. We should develop the second industry, impel the industrialization, speed up the development of the third industry, realize the transformation of the excess labor in rural area, increase investment, especially FDI, enhance the construction of towns, accelerate the marketilization, enlarge the educational investment and improve the accumulate of labor.