Research On Price Fluctuation Of Listed Agriculture Company

The development of modern agriculture cannot be independent of securities business. The direct support of securities business to agriculture development carry out via listed agriculture company. The price of listed agriculture company is an integrated reflection from omnifarious information such as market, investor, proprietor, etc. The research on price fluctuation of listed agriculture company is significant not only in decision-making for agricultural investor, market governor and proprietor of the agriculture company but also in guidance for perfecting stock price mechanism, increasing stock market efficiency and fully exerting the support role.From the point of view of empirical study, this research was done by applying modern financial measure method and statistic method. There are seven chapters in this paper. In chapter one, the research status quo of stocks price fluctuation and listed agriculture company both at home and abroad was analyzed so as to find out the existing problems at current study. In chapter two, the basic statistic characteristics of the listed agriculture company price was studied by using descriptive statistic. In chapter three, by applying self-correlation analysis method and GARCH series models, the characteristics such as self-correlation, cluster, date effect and the leverage effect, of the listed agriculture company price and return were studied. In the studying on date effect of the stock return second moment,the dummy date variable was joined in GARCH models and the disturbance was assumed to fit t distributing for the first time, which improved the model fitness. In chapter four, the industry factor models of the listed agriculture company return was established for the first time so as to study the stock risk structure characters. In chapter five, the relationship not only between price fluctuation of the listed agriculture company and agricultural economy but also between price fluctuation and agricultural policy were studied so as to open out the influence of the agricultural economy and agricultural policy on the price fluctuation of the listed agriculture company. In chapter six, the relationship between price fluctuation and it's characteristics of the listed agriculture company were studied. In chapter seven, the summaries of this paper were given, and some countermeasures, suggestions and future works were put forward.The main research conclusions are as the following.(1) The price trend of the listed agriculture company is less than that of the whole stock market, the price fluctuation level of the listed agriculture company is stronger than that of the whole stock market. The daily stock return come forth excess kurtosis and fat-tailed character, the stock return trend to normal distributing while computing return interval become bigger.(2) The price fluctuation of the listed agriculture company has cluster character, and to some extent it has date effect and scale effect.(3) There exits remarkable positive correlation between the stock return and the return fluctuation of the listed agriculture company. The influence of the stock return on return fluctuation is symmetrical basically.(4) About half reason of the price fluctuation of the listed agriculture company attributed to the changing of itself, then to the changing of stock market and industry. The stock price fluctuation has remarkable relation with earning per share and net cash flow per share generated by business operation of the listed agriculture company. The agricultural policy has influence on the price fluctuation of the listed agriculture company to some extent.(5) The price fluctuation of the listed agriculture company keep ahead of the agricultural economy change, and it plays a role of"rain glass"to some extent for agricultural economy.From the point of view of agriculture, the results of this paper indicate that the validity of the stock market is not strong, the sense degree of the stock market investor should heighten further, there exist some problems during the process of relevant government departments to monitor and manage the listed agriculture company. Thus, we suggest that the information disclosure system should be perfected, the validity of the stock market should be improved, the sense degree of the stock market investor should be bred, the monitoring and management to stock market should be strengthen, the investing direction of the collected money should be ruled, and the quality of listed agriculture company should exert to be improved.