Research On Stock Price Fluctuation And Its Influence Factors Of Agricultural Listed Companies

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, but agriculture is the bottleneck of China’s economic development in the national economy. The key to solving agricultural problems of the development of modern agriculture, the development of modern agriculture capital market provides a strong support. Practice shows that in developed countries, agricultural modernization requires a multi-level, diversified financial system support, including capital market has a very important position, that play a direct role in financial support to rural economic development through listed agribusiness. Agricultural listed companies’ stock prices to fully reflect the stock market different actors comprehensive information. Therefore, agricultural listed companies’ stock prices volatility empirical analysis, exploring behavior characterized by stock price volatility and the correlation between stock price volatility and national agricultural policies, corporate financial indicators will build a mature capital market and promote China’s modernization process of agriculture.The empirical study is mainly based on the multi-dimensional financial econometrics and statistical methods, taking the empirical analysis of agricultural listed companies’ stock prices volatility as the starting point. First, the agricultural listed companies were classified as clear boundaries and the distribution situation presentation in the introduction. Papers followed on the agricultural sector listed companies stock prices for basic statistics feature analysis, to clarify agriculture’s share price time series statistical law itself. Then again on April 8,2002 to 2014 April 11 the day of the agricultural sector in the Shanghai index daily closing price, conditional heteroskedasticity model based on to analyze share price fluctuation of agricultural daily yields. Finally, from the perspective of macro and micro start with, respectively, this empirical study using event study method and correlation analysis of the agricultural sector stock price index volatility and 12 No.1 central documents since the new century, listed companies’ own financial indicators to a quantitative correlation empirical research. The empirical results show that:(1) Listed Agricultural Enterprises administrative geographical distribution and temporal distribution needs to be further improved. Fewer large traditional agricultural province and the last five years the distribution of listed agricultural companies. (2) The agricultural sector as a whole shares in the low state, while a high degree of volatility than the market. The agricultural sector all stock and stock index returns showed a fat tail shape, income distribution is not normal sequence. (3) Agricultural index showed a significant earnings volatility and aggregation conditions heteroscedasticity. Stock price index’s return and volatility have a significant week effect, so the lack of effectiveness of the agricultural sector. Stock price index returns and volatility has a significant positive correlation, so the investors more risk averse. The impact of agriculture stock price index’s fluctuations in earnings substantially symmetrical, little affected by bad news. (4) Enacting agricultural policies have an impact on changes in agricultural index’s income, promulgated preferential agricultural policy some years, the market gave a good response. The change of agricultural listed companies’earnings per share and operating cash flow per share have a greater impact on their stock price volatility.Aiming at the above conclusion, find defects and deficiencies in agricultural capital market from the market efficiency in. In order to improve the efficiency of agricultural capital markets, give full play to the agricultural capital market role in boosting China’s agricultural modernization process, thesis makes a few suggestions to agriculture investors, agricultural listed companies, government and regulatory authorities.