Research On The Trend And Characteristics Of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation Under The New Economy

Under the new economic norm,the agricultural products market in China has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading of the consumption of agricultural products changed from primary products to popular demand for the diverse needs of the high quality goods,the production of agricultural products by the family organization based mass production into the new management organization of specialization,standardization and scale production;thus,characteristics market volatility and cycle of agricultural products will appear under the new economic normal rules and behavior has significant difference with the previous.Based on this,prediction and analysis of the market price of agricultural products using a large data inquiry,under the new economic norm of China's agricultural products market fluctuation cycle characterization and regulation policy,is not only the need of theoretical research,but also need to is the reality of regulation behavior.This paper uses statistical analysis method and H-P filtering method for timing feature analysis on the price fluctuation of agricultural products from 1978 to 2014 Chinese;then using ARIMA(?2,1,1??1,1,1?¹² empirical prediction analysis of the price index of agricultural products in January 2017 to December 2020 and the basket of the wholesale price index,the wholesale price of agricultural products Chinese data forecast data from January 2015 to December 2016 with Census X12 seasonal decomposition analysis method and H-P filtering method for Chinese price fluctuation of agricultural products under the new economic norm of detrended fluctuation analysis;finally,according to the fluctuation of prices of agricultural products under the new economic norm and combing China agricultural product price regulation policy system,put forward the new economic norm to promote the effective operation of the agricultural products market in China need to beware of seasonal and inter periodic internal and external shocks should also improve Agricultural products market monitoring system based on expectations,establish the mechanism of agricultural products in a short cycle fluctuation control mainly,to build technology oriented supply system of modern agricultural products,to strengthen the market system construction of the whole industry chain of agricultural products...