Study On Construction Of The China-Japan-Korea FTA

Title:Study on Construction of the China-Japan-Korea FTAMajor:World EconomicsAcademic Advisor:Professor Xu WenjiAfter entering 21^stcentury,under the WTO mechanism and Multilateralism in international order,RTAs concluding is spreading quickly,and FTAs,a kind of RTA, occupy the absolute proportion.Northeast Asian area with the center of China,Japan and Korea,although occupies a great proportion in world economy,comparing with other areas,the integration of the market doesn't get actively promoted.Recently,the discussion about improving the bilateral and multi-literal FTA in Northeast Asia is getting active again,so far,not only its purpose and prospect are not clear,but also a systematic and factual plan has not formed yet.Since the reform and openness of China in 1970s,the scale of the trade and investment between the countries in Northeast Asian region has increased very rapidly, and following with the trend,the economic cooperation issue inside the Northeast Asian region is proposed.After a series of things as 1997 Asian Financial Crisis happened,the necessities of constructing an economic cooperation in Northeast Asia or even in East Asia is actively discussed.In other words,in order to cope with the world economic regionalization,cover the defects of the multi-lateral free trade mechanism,ensure the comparative static and dynamic benefit of the integration,introduce the overseas investment,strengthen the capacity of defending the impact from outside,ensure the political stability in the region and construct the connecting relationship for safety and protect,the Northeast Asian countries gradually form a common sensitive band of economic cooperation in Northeast Asia.Under this surrounding,in recent years,the economic cooperation has been discussed at both folk and governmental level in Northeast even in East Asia.However,the necessities for cooperation existing,the economic cooperation in Northeast Asia has not been promoted rapidly for a variety of factors which include the difference in the economic developing stage,economic scale,technologic level,and the economic and political mechanism between Northeast countries,the resentment brought by historical problems between them,the lack of cooperation in safety and protect.But the Northeast Asian region does have the potential to develop into the center of the world economy,in the region,there is the technology and market in Korea and Japan, the resources in the Far East of Russia,the labor and resources in the Northeast China and North Korea,and so on,the complementarities in the region is really very strong.So, if we can overcome the limitation of the economic cooperation in Northeast Asia, forming the surrounding of politics and economy to some extent,the possibility of implementing the Northeast Asian economic cooperation is very high.Because of this,this thesis adopts the developing method of international politics and economy which can consider the politics and economy at the same time as the research method,for most of the research before related with Northeast Asian regional cooperation and regional integration are at the economic welfare and effectiveness level, or some level at the political and military strategic levels.However this thesis adopting the developing method of international politics and economy which concludes international politics and international relations,international economy and international trades,and regional economics and industrial economics and so on,through the thinking transferring of the recent cooperation obstacles in Northeast Asia,get to the necessities of concluding CJKFTA.That is to say,this thesis reveals that in order to relieve the stressful relations in the fact of Northeast Asian politics,improve the sense of constructing a community,we must promote CJKFTA,and the FTA will not only make great contribution to the world trade liberalization,at the same time,it will also be a necessary method to process the structure adjustment of the national fragile industries in the three countries.This thesis based on the theoretic research of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation,at one hand,analyzes the limitation and possibility of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation,which based on the research of the direction and developing status of concluding CJKFTA,analyzes the necessities,priority problems,and the affecting effect to macro economy of CJKFTA.At the other hand,reveals the developing method,promoting direction,style and prospect of the united-market FTA that Northeast Asian area needs.In short,this thesis summarizes the content of overcoming the obstacle factors in Northeast Asian economic cooperation,and the macro economic affecting effect of CJKFTA,researches the justification of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation, proves that CJKFTA should be the first promoting content in Northeast Asian economic cooperation,which also proves its should-do character,at the same time,proves the rightness of the proposal,which is the research purpose of the thesis. This thesis is made up of 8 chapters,concluding the introduction and the conclusion.Chapter 1 is the introduction,which mainly notes the research purpose of the thesis, thesis structure,research methods and research scale,the summary of the research status, and the innovation of the research.Chapter 2 is based on the theoretic research of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation.In Paragraph 1,this thesis first researches the concept and ways of general international economic cooperation,and based on that,tries to get the clear concept and ways for the Northeast Asian economic cooperation.The concept of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation in this thesis takes the concepts for the regionalism of the forming economic cooperation among the Northeast Asian regional area or nations and the economic integration among them as the basis,proposes a theoretic base to Northeast Asian countries in the final overcoming the obstacle of the economic cooperation and forming a strong institutional economic cooperation as EU and NAFTA,pursing each other's benefits and co-exist,and making international surroundings.Through comparing the integration theories of liberalism and realism,Paragraph 2 gets a theoretic frame of Northeast Asian economic cooperation.In this thesis,regional integration is defined as a political course whose basic content is the cooperation and adjustment of economic policies and whose highest stage is the political integration. Because of this,this thesis puts the research focus on the political level,and researches the economic integration,political integration and the bilateral relationship in these countries.So,Chapter 2 theoretically notes the should-do character of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation.Chapter 3 combines the regional integration theories discussed before with the Northeast Asian area,through the integration theories of liberalism and realism,analyzes the reasons why the economic cooperation in this area is developing more slowly than the other areas nowadays.It also discusses the forming condition for overcoming the difficulties and implementing the Northeast Asian economic cooperation,through the realist position which is more theoretically persuaded,especially in the aspect of safety and protect based on the non-national capacity which nations are pursuing,if cooperation is the best way to bring out safety and protect,the possibility of cooperation will be authorized,so this thesis measures the possibility through the defensive realist position.Paragraph 1 does liberalist and realist researches on the reasons why the Northeast Asian economic cooperation is far behind the other area nowadays.On the aspect of the liberalist explanation,it analyzes the stagnation of the regional economic cooperation, the defects of the non-government organizations,and the limitation of the national politics in China,Japan and Korea.On the aspect of the realist explanation,through dividing into the confusion of the safety and protect and the lack of the safety-and-protect community,North and South issue and the Cross-Strait issue,the opposition of the USA and the hegemonic rivalry between China and Japan,and the lack of the leadership processes the analysis.It also discusses and analyzes the heterogeneity of the countries and the historical problems in other explanations.Paragraph 2 from the position of the defensive realism,believes that the Northeast Asia can overcome the limitation and do the economic cooperation under the forming conditions,and doesn't deny the possibility of cooperation,and processes the research and analysis on the possibility.First,it discusses and analyzes the forming conditions to the Northeast Asian economic cooperation which includes the solution of the safety-and-protect problem and construction of the safety-and-protect community, pursuing open regionalism and leading the USA to participate in,and the cooperation between China and Japan.Paragraph 3 expands the prospective of the possibility,and analyzes and researches the possibility of implementing the economic cooperative community in Northeast Asian area.It is specifically divided into the styles of regional integration and the stage theory of the Northeast Asian economic integration,informal regionalization of the Northeast Asian economic integration,formal regionalization of the Northeast Asian economic integration,and then processes the analysis.Chapter 3 notes the limitation and the possibility of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation combined with the theories,and proposes a systematic plan for the possibility of developing the regional economic community in the Northeast Asian area.Chapter 4 takes CJKFTA as the important economic cooperative community and beginning of the economic cooperation in the Northeast Asian area,and does a comprehensive and systematic research.Paragraph 1 notes the developing surrounding and the necessities of CJKFTA.The most important point in the surrounding for developing CJKFTA is that all of the three countries should have the common sense that they should cope with the threat brought by the spreading day-by-day world regionalism together.In the necessities,one should be mostly stressed is that CJKFTA will bring the economic benefits to all of the three countries.Paragraph 2 researches the positions of Korea which can function as a bridge, China which has already developed into the world's new power,Japan which is one of the most advanced countries in the world to CJKFTA,and then gets to the direction of CJKFTA. Paragraph 3 researches the developing status of CJKFTA,and finds the existing problem which should be solved first.In January,1999,China,Japan and Korea held the 1^stsummit in Philippine,in November,2007,held the 8^thsummit.The national strategic research agencies took these contents in the research report,which including deepening the sense of the interdependent relationship in China-Japan-Korea trade,improving the competitiveness of the manufacturing,coping with the agricultural and fisheries subjects together,improving the service industries to the world level,and made a finally agreement that to deliver these content to the head of the three countries.The priority problems in CJKFTA are improving the understanding relationship in society and politics,improving the industrial structure,strengthening the technological cooperation, strengthening the monetary and financial cooperation,the structure of the cooperative committee,and making the region actively,and so on.In other words,Chapter 4 based on the political and economic relationship among China,Japan and Korea,analyzes the economic and political results will probably be brought by CJKFTA,and discusses the rightness of CJKFTA as the beginning of the Northeast Asian economic cooperation.Chapter 5 is about the pushing direction and developing status of CJKFTA in Northeast Asia.In the precondition of the surrounding of the pushing trend and prospect to FTA all over the world nowadays,the three countries of China,Japan and Korea which are the border countries in Northeast Asia and also the competitive countries in the world market,in recent two or three years,the number of FTAs with other countries and areas is rapidly increasing.Because of this,this thesis researches the pushing direction and developing status of the three countries of China,Japan and Korea which leading the Northeast Asian area respectively.Paragraph 1 first researches the FTA strategy of China.The FTA concluding order of China is first with the border countries and areas,and developing countries have priority,and the motion of the priority strategy is ensuring the energy resources,forming the regionalism centered with China,and the second motion is other oversea market, promoting the national area development,and increase the competitiveness of the national industries,and so on.Paragraph 2 first researches the FTA strategy of Japan,the standard for Japan to choose an object country to conclude a FTA is making the favorable international surrounding,ensuring the economic benefits,and putting stress on the possibility of object country's situation and implementation.Paragraph 3 first researches the FTA strategy of Korea,under promoting the proposal "several FTA being promoted at the same time policy",its political focus is on the advanced economy. Chapter 5 analyzes and compares the direction and purpose of the three countries' FTA policies,the developing status and direction of the three countries' FTA,and the respective developing results with each other,and then gets the cooperative mechanism of the three countries' conclusion of the FTA indirectly.Chapter 6 analyzes the affecting results of the macro economy brought by CJKFTA. It takes the research contents made by the common research agencies of the three countries for implementing CJKFTA as the basis,which ensuring the objectivity of the research.Paragraph 1 researches the mutual relationship between CJKFTA and the computable general equilibrium(CGE).It points out that it is appropriate to research CJKFTA by CEG model,and makes the research of CGE model more specific.And it notes the differences of usage of the CGE models between the research before and research in this thesis.Paragraph 2 notes the structure of the CGE model based on CJKFTA,that is to say, it notes that the newest data is necessary for the constructive elements of the model, capital accumulation and the service liberalization.Paragraph 3 notes the CGE applying results in the research analysis of CJKFTA.It reveals a series of the possible developing direction of CJKFTA,and analyzes the affecting results of CJKFTA and the impact on trade.In a economic scale view,through the objective materials,Chapter 6 analyzes and gets the actual economic benefits to the three countries which occupy the 1/5 world economy brought by CJKFTA,and CJKFTA will have an positive affecting results of macro economy.Chapter 7 researches and analyzes the pushing direction of the market integration to develop CJKFTA.Paragraph 1 is to explore the suitable form of market integration to push CJKFTA, discussing from the aspects including the real possibility problems of CJKFTA,the heterogeneity problems of developing CJKFTA,suitable form and the thematic problems of CJKFTA,CJKFTA and non-tariff problems and so on.Centered with the issues and direction proposed before in several perspectives, Paragraph 2 researches and analyzes the right pushing direction of implementing CJKFTA.Especially from the level of the institutionalizing the mechanist market integration aims at three aspects which including implementing CJKFTA,and institutionalizing the Northeast elements,the position of the enterprises,the benefits of market integration to process the research.And analyze the diplomacy of implementing CJKFTA,safety and protect and market integration aims at the actually benefits brought by the implementing CJKFTA.Especially in the level of market integration,research the market integration and the cultural and institutional developing method,market integration and market economic developing method.At last,from the obstacles for CJKFTA,use the reverse thinking method of implementing CJKFTA to reveal that CJKFTA can be a means to cope with the stress of the political relationship,non-trade regionalist world trade liberalism,and improvement of national fragile industrial structural adjustment.Chapter 7 is the comprehensive discussion part of the thesis,through the reverse of the thinking position,proposing the difficulties that CJKFTA faces,in order to find a right direction,discussing again from a new view position.At last,Chapter 8 is the conclusion of the main content and comprehension of the thesis,and proposing policy suggestions.