Was Not Observed Economy Estimate Methodology And Applied Research

GDP is a core index of reflecting total economic output, which plays a predominant position in authority's statistics and economy analysis. Theoretically, GDP is supposed to measure correctly of products and service scale, which are conformed to the accounting principles of national economy. However, according to some researches, quite a few of the economic activities are not included in the index of GDP. These economic activities, which are supposed to be examined, are called "Non-observed Economy" (shortly, NOE).Some country's practices shows that the NOE has already developed into a kind of international phenomenon. The existence of it has brought unavoidable influence for each aspect of the national economy system. Owing to this, adopting a scientific and effective way to manage the phenomenon of NOE is regarded as one of the important event for the governments of all countries. The premise of solving the problem is having a good grasp of the whole scale of NOE and its concrete constructive information, which needs the aid of the scientific estimation method.Since the middle and late 19^th century, estimation method of NOE has become one of the research centres in the realm of the international academe. Many experts and international authorities have made efforts for putting forward of the reasonable method, which have achieved the remarkable results. However, on one hand, because of the NOE's characters, such as concealment, complexity, regionalism, intersection, etc., the method we are using now are always unable to attend to everything at the same time and hard to fix an accurate position. On the other hand, because of the different research original intention, estimating the same object with different methods always appears the big divergence. In addition, the estimation of the entire scale has caused more attention, however, the research of the estimation methods of NOE categorized scale has been neglected relatively, which causes the imperfect of the theory system of the NOE estimation methods. Therefore, to comb, categorize, evaluate the estimation methods of NOE and study on the estimation methods of categorized scale of NOE , definitely, have significant practical and theorized meaning.Chinese NOE estimation started at the end of the 20^th century. Henceforth, although varieties of methods are applied to the practice of Chinese NOE estimation, yet compare to the research abroad, the methods we are using are comparatively backward and lack of the Chinese characteristics. Therefore, to sum up and conclude the foreign methods systematically and thoroughly, study on the methods with the Chinese characteristics , definitely, is the most important condition of realizing the continuously fast and healthy development of the Chinese economy.This paper regards discussing the theoretical base, commenting on the foreign experience, paying attention to the Chinese characteristics and improving the system of methods as guiding idea. This paper makes full use of the knowledge of macroeconomics, national economics, econometrics, etc., on the base of discussing the connotation, estimating theory, the experiential method and their typical application, the paper conforms to the research idea of confirming the estimating object, explaining the method and making the practical estimation .Meanwhile, this paper emphasizes "the three study combinations", that is combining study estimation methods abroad with Chinese characteristics, combining the estimation methods of NOE entire scale with the categorized scale, and combining the theoretical estimation method with the practical estimation analysis.Chapter 1 is the study on NOE's basic theory. This chapter is devoted to clarifying the estimating object, analyzing the entire and categorized connotation of NOE and the factors which affect the origination and development of NOE and also establishing the methodology foundation for the follow up study. From the analyzing of the varieties of the designations, connotations and the standard of judging, this chapter gives the definition of NOE which is based on the angle of SNA and analyzes the producing scope and subject. Meanwhile, this chapter also gives the explanations of NOE classification:the statistics definition of Underground Production, Illegal Production, Informal Sector Production, Household Production for Own Final Use, Production Missed Due to Deficiencies in Data Collection Programme. And this chapter also analyzes the logical position in SNA of each NOE classification. Finally, this chapter analyzes the factors which determine and affect the origination and development of NOE in detail and provides the theory foundation of putting forward correctly of estimation methods.Chapter 2 is about NOE entire scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of NOE entire scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world. Nowadays, the popular methods of the NOE entire scale estimating in the world include mainly in two categories: investigating method and indirect estimation methods. The former mainly divides into six categories: the currency measuring method, revenue and expenditure measuring method, non-currency measuring method and the labour investing method. This chapter gives the elaboration of the source, thought, process, applicating condition and applicating present situation of the above six methods, combining the analysis of each method's merit and defect in detail. Meanwhile, this chapter also tracks the latest research in the world concerning each method, such as the method of Bhattacharyya, consumers expenditure single formula method, consumers expenditure systematic method, the modified KK method etc.. Finally, this chapter gives a summary of the NOE entire scale method systematically.Chapter 3 is about the NOE categorized scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of the NOE categorized scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world.. This chapter discusses the following three themes: the estimation method of the secret producing scale, irregular section producing scale and illegal producing scale. At the same time, this chapter gives detailed discussion and comments on the designing principle, the important and difficult points, the applicative condition, merits and defect, the typical application situation of the following investigating methods: the underground producing investigating method of the products expenditure, labour and the suggestion, the investigating method of the labour, the family income and expenditure, the enterprise, the mixture of the inhabitant and the enterprise in the irregular sections, the investigating method combining the inhabitants' investigation with module. Meanwhile, this chapter also takes "the scale of drug producing" and "the scale of sex service" as examples to discuss the basic way of the illegal producing scale estimation. The international experience shows that the direct investigating method is mainly used in the estimation of NOE categorized scale instead of the indirect way.Chapter 4 is about the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE. From this chapter, we begin to observe and study the NOE situation in China. The contents of the chapter four include the following there parts: "the knowledge of the Chinese NOE", "the factors which determine the development of Chinese NOE", and "the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE". On the ground of the basic theory of the NOE estimation and the special Chinese background, we mainly discuss the Chinese characteristics of NOE and analyze the NOE's logical position in Chinese SNA. And then this chapter gives the discussion of the elements that influence the Chinese NOE and the formable mechanism, looking forward to establishing the theoretical and practical basic for the reasonable choice and scientific establishment of the Chinese NOE estimation method.Chapter 5 is about the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation method. This chapter gives a complete observation and study on the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation, in accordance with 2 themes: "the current situation of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation" and "the current situation of Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation". In the process of discussion, this chapter gives a list of varieties of documents about the Chinese NOE estimation and the contribution that the scholars made in this field. The objective comment on the current situation of Chinese NOE scale estimation shows that there exists a gap between the current level and the international experience. And set the direction of improving and innovating clearly.Chapter 6 is the amelioration and innovative study on Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method. This chapter is devoted to the discussion of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method which is suitable for Chinese characteristics and estimating the NOE entire scale of the passing years. On one hand, in regards of the choice of the estimation method, we mainly research the amelioration and the application of foreign method for the sake of embodying the "Chinese characteristic". For example, through the selection and distinguishing of the index, we have ameliorated the method of currency demand, worked out the Chinese Tanzi model and its full logarithm and half logarithm formula. We analyze the feasibility of the method of accounts' income and expenditure applied in China. And also apply the method of MIMIC model to the practice of Chinese NOE scale estimation for the first time, and get the estimating result of the NOE entire scale in the past years. On the other, we put forward several innovative methods according to the formable mechanism, operative feature, the relationship with the official economy and the basic condition of Chinese statistics data of Chinese NOE. For example, we put forward 2 ideas of isolating NOE from the extra amount of currency of the past years according to "the Chinese riddle", and get the result that the scale of NOE in the past years is on the ground of the method of the extra currency isolation. On the ground of the theory of social capital flow, we put forward the idea of estimating the NOE entire scale through the capital expenditure from the difference of household income and expenditure and estimate it in practical. Meanwhile, this chapter also compare and analyze the estimating result of different methods.Chapter 7 is the innovative study on Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation method. In this chapter, we take the unobserved production in informal sector as an example, to discuss the estimation method of it. This chapter begins with the distinction of the basic category. After analyzing the statistics definition of the unobserved production in informal sector, the standards of judging and the producing boundary, on one hand, we mainly discuss the feasibility of using the direct investigating method to estimate the scale of unobserved production in informal sector, combining the Chinese investigative statistics system in force and the economic feature in informal sector. This chapter gives the designing ideas of the investigation of the scale of unobserved production in informal sector through unparticular investigation in support of the population and economy general survey, and the angle of the residents' expenditure. On the other, we put forward 2 indirect estimation methods for the scale of unobserved production in informal sector—data comparison and the analysis of labour invest through the observation and study of the category, nature, source of the existed basic data. Finally, this chapter takes Zhejiang province as an example, and makes the practical estimation of the unobserved production in informal sector.Chapter 8 is the summary. In this chapter, we generalize the conclutions of the study, and summarize the deficiency from data and methods. Meanwhile, we discuss the leading way of the research following.