Research On The Reservoir Management Benefit Appraisal And Forecast System Of Oil-producing Factory

Presently, the upstream enterprises' production management environment of oil companies of China has changed profoundly, and the resource restraint and the development difficulty become more and more great. As the responsibility subject of upstream enterprises, oil-producing factory is responsible for controlling oil & gas production cost and improving economic benefit. Therefore, on the basis of oil-producing factory and according to the requirement of reservoir management strategy, establishing an effective appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit is propitious to enhancing the decision-making level of reservoir management and the economic benefit of oil-producing factory. Taking oil-producing factory and reservoir management unit as breakthrough point and on the basis of the reservoir management theory and benefit appraisal theory, the paper integrates theory with practice, defines the connotation of reservoir management benefit and establishes the appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit. The paper regards the system as a branch of reservoir strategic management, which takes reservoir management unit as the main object of study, and the improvement of economic benefit and sustainable development ability as the goal, and carries on the plan and control of reservoir management through providing scientific reservoir development programming information and coordinating oil price, output and investmentUsing the historical methodology and the literature remark law, the paper comments on the theory and application of benefit appraisal and the forecast synthetically, and analyses the necessity and feasibility of establishing and applying the reservoir management benefit appraisal and forecast system.Using the DUPONT analysis method, multi objective appraisal method and cost management decision-making method, the paper constructs four reservoir management benefit appraisal models including oil-producing factory's appraisal model, reservoir management unit's appraisal model, development management unit's appraisal model and single well's appraisal model, that compose the oil-producing factory's reservoir management benefit appraisal subsystem.Using the mathematical statistic method and on the basis of the reservoir management unit, the paper constructs the benefit forecast model in the budget year and that in residual economy average life, that compose the oil-producing factory's reservoir management benefit forecast subsystem.Using the synthesis method combining qualitative description and quantitative analysis, the paper carries on the demonstration study of the appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit and proposes the countermeasure suggestions of applying the system, which include strengthening reservoir management benefit idea, innovating organization structure and improving the reservoir management responsibility system. In brief, the establishment and application of oil-producing factory's appraisal and forecast system of reservoir management benefit can realize the joint of appraisal and forecast of reservoir management benefit. It is helpful to the comprehension and grasp of reservoir development tendency and the prompt discovery and diagnosis of the problems in reservoir management. Based on it, scientific forecast and effective regulation of the tendency of oil-producing factory's input and output can provide the effective methods and decision-making basis for appraising oil-producing factory's present situation, clearing development target and instructing production management practice.