Research On The Investment Decision Of Chinese Small Hydropower Industry

This research has comparatively analysed the current situation and the trends of domestic and abroad small hydropower industry on the basis studying the theory of industry investment decision, then pointed out its prospect and entrance obstacles of Chinese small hydropower industry, summed up its investment risks. The results provides the referrneces to the investors and operators of this industy, throughing the demonstration research on the Guo Du Wang small hydropower in BaoKang county, HuBei province.Chapter 1 is introduction. The author describes research background, the selected topic reason, the purpose and realistic application value. The research methods and paths and theoretical framework of this dissertation also are given.Chapter 2 is literature review. The contents mainly include two parallels: one is the theoretical methods and paths based on the industry investment decision, the another is about the new trend of investment decision—real option theory.In chapter 3, author firstly describes the definition and species of small hydropower, analyses its development theories and current situation comparatively, especially researches the financing experience of the demestic and abroad small hydropower industry, the delights to China and the preferential policy, which offer the macroscopical background analysis of how to invest Chinese small hydropower industry.In chapter 4, the author discuss research method analysis and investment value of industry firstly, then sum up the development characteristic of our country's small hydropower industry, analyse the investment prospect and entrance obstacles of small hydropower industry in China. Then, the author point out that with our country national economy rapidly development, which the energy requirement, diversification with main investment body in market economy system, brand-new development pattern of Chinese small hydropower industry, advanced power station construction ability and new national socialism rural construction, electric power decut strategy and so on reach the conclusion that Chinese small hydropower industry already enter into the strategy opportunity phase. Finally the author basis in parallel the profits of our country small hydro-electric power industry, electric power industry, water and electricity industry, point out that the investment opportunity of Chinese small hydropower industry is existence for sure, summing up 4 investment points of Chinese small hydropower industry.In chapter 5, the author sum up six kinds common existing problems in the small hydropower plant project on summary above all, analyze various risk during the course of the investment in small hydropower plant detailedly, that is the financing risk, the investment surroundings risk. At the same time, the author brings forward the strategy and methods how to avoid its investment risk. Finally the author leads the theory of real option into the investment decision of small hydro-electric power plant project, deduces out the net present value index formula guided by that theory, uses the fuzzy collection theory to establish the small hydroelectric power station investment plan optimal fuzzy synthesis appraisal model, has carried on the confirmation with the example.Chapter 6 is demonstration research. The dissertation analyses the investment decision course of the Guo Du Wang small hydropower in BaoKang county, HuBei province, these investment risks mentioned are validated. The author creatively researches the relationship between the risk countermeasures and capital structure. Lastly, the author evaluates the investment decision of the Guo Du Wang small hydropower complying with the following aspects: financial affairs estimate, profit and loss balances analysis, financial affaires sensitivity analysis, economy risk.Chapter 7 is conclusion. The author summarizes main conclusion and creation of this dissertation. Simultaneously the author brings forward suggestions on existence problems and future works.The research result of this paper have important theory value and guiding significance, which provide the rational investment decision suggestion to the investor, and will be beneficial to the investor to accurately grasp small hydro-electric power industry investment opportunity, promote the development of China small hydro-electric power industry thereby. Besides, through the research on the small hydro-electric power industry, the author reveal its principal character and developing rules, further rich and perfect the theory method and content system of industry research, especially new industry research, and provide the pattern and method which can be used to other new industry research.