Risk Analysis Of Project Investment

The engineering construction project, especially the state key investment project, often has huge investment, long construction period, technological and economy risk , the great potential impact to the ecological environment, uncertain factors. So these characteristics incur that the factual project deviate from the consequence that people expect by a certain degree. So, at the stage of construction project investment decision, it is an inevitable request to put up risk investment analysis. The thesis combines the reality of engineering construction in our country, through the two respects- theory and practice, and has deeply studied this hot subject -- risk investment of the engineering project systematically. And it has important academy and actual meaning.The thesis is made up of 5 chapters, including the following content mainly:Chapter one, the summary. Introduce the cause of the risk of the engineering construction project, domestic and international current situation and trends of the research of project risk analysis.Chapter two, identification of risk facters and risk assessments. Discussing risk concept , meaning and classification; describing the basic content and main characteristic , risk factors and hierarchical structure of risk analysis appraisal; discussing in detail that risk identification methods, which are the expert's investigation methods , the scene analysis methods and the level analysis methods, and then grade the risk factors of hydroelectric and hydraulic project . Finally, introducing the risk assessment content, and the ways and usually summing distribution methods that objective estimation combines the subjectively estimation.Chapter three, appraisal of risk and risk countermeasure. Put forward the appraisal standard in concrete that judge comprehensive risk, investment risk , financial risk and economic risk. Analysis main methods of many risk factors appraisal -- Monte Carlo simulation methods, level analysis methods and CIM methods. Introduce the risk decision methods and risk countermeasure measure briefly.Chapter four, the investment risk analysis of the hydroelectric project. Taking XM power station as an example, I has studied its investment risk question., and have introduced the classification of the hydraulic projects, then do some research on investment risk question of XM power station. I have calculated economic benefits risk of hydropower station because of randomness that is brought by surface flow's, the probability of the gains on investment of the project (namely NPV is greater than zero )and the probability of the loss. So it has offered the basis for investment decision of the project.Chapter five, making an conclusion. Summarize main work of the wholethesis.