A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis On The Carbon Tariffs In The Era Of Low Carbon

Under the background of the global warming's challenge to human survival and development,low-carbon economy becomes the theme for the future economic development.Developed countries collect carbon tariffs on high carbon imports in the name of low-carbon economy, which is controversial.Then,whether is carbon tariff the best way to realize low-carbon economy or not? How to collect? What is "fair competition" or "trade protection"?Against this background,this paper first uses input-output model to measure the carbon dioxide emissions embodied in the domestic consumption,imports,exports and net exports.And the international economic sectors are divided into high,medium and low carbon products based on the results.In the meantime, we analyses the relationship of between China's international trade and carbon dioxide emissions by the pollution trade terms and net exports pollution index. The results show: considering of the processing trade, carbon dioxide emissions of domestic consumption,imports,exports and net exports present increasing trend.And carbon dioxide emissions mainly come from industrial manufacturing,and one of mechanical equipment manufacturing accounts for the largest proportion both exports and imports. In general,the pollution trade terms is worsening. The high-carbon products'net exports pollution index raises dramatically, but the low-carbon products'net exports pollution index declines slightly.Secondly, using the extended MCHUGE model,the paper builds the energy substitution module,carbon dioxide emissions module and two kinds of pollution indexes to analyze the effects of different carbon tariff levied on exports.The results show that,carbon tariff increases the cost of exports,which makes exports decline sharply. Simultaneously, the production of high-carbon industry and energy industry declines and employment drops,and then both demand and rate of real wage lower, all of which causes real GDP drop.Export capacity and domestic absorptive capacity weakened output level of the energy industry and high-carbon industry. However, because the labor market is sluggish and real wages fall,the growth of absorptive capacity and domestic export capacity stimulates the development of labor-intensive industries.In some extent,carbon tariffs can stimulate energy saving technology, improve industrial competitiveness,which strengthen the replacement rate of imports (such as gasoline).Carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants emissions decline in different degrees,and the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction is obvious.Moreover, except for gas,other energy demands decline and energy efficiency improves.Finally, some suggestions about the policy on carbon tariff and low-carbon economy development are put forward.