The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On China's Industrial Structure

Since the reform of the exchange rate formation system in July 2005,the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 25.1%.Although the People's Bank of China has repeatedly expanded the exchange rate fluctuations,in general,before the “8.11” exchange rate reform in 2015,the one-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate was obvious.The “8.11” exchange rate reform released the RMB depreciation pressure accumulated in the previous period.From the monthly data,the RMB exchange rate fluctuations began to show obvious two-way characteristics.On the other hand,China's industrial restructuring has achieved gratifying results: the proportion of the primary industry has continued to decline,the proportion of the secondary industry has fluctuated within a narrow range,the proportion of the tertiary industry has steadily increased,and it has achieved a dominant position in the national economy.However,the optimization of industrial structure is a dynamic process.There are still many adjustment spaces for China's industrial structure,and the internal structure of each industry needs to be optimized.At present.As China's economy continues to integrate into globalization,the power of industrial restructuring is not negligible from the development of the external sector.The exchange rate,as a key factor affecting the development of the external sector,will inevitably have a profound impact on the adjustment of the industrial structure.China is at a critical stage of economic transformation and structural optimization,which coincides with the recovery of the world economy and the special period of China's “the new normal” economic period.The new characteristics of exchange rate fluctuation bring new vitality to the study of industrial restructuring.This paper aims to study the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's industrial structure through theoretical analysis and policy simulation.In the second chapter,the theoretical part of the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and industrial structure is compiled and elaborated.In the third chapter,the social accounting matrix is compiled and the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model is constructed.Finally,the following conclusions are drawn through policy simulation.The appreciation of the RMB will reduce the output of the primary industry,the output of the secondary and tertiary industries will increase,and the devaluation of the RMB will have the opposite effect.The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on various industries is asymmetric,with the greatest impact on the output changes of the primary industry and the least impact on the tertiary industry.The impact of the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate on the output of various industries is non-linear.From the simulation of specific industries,the impacts of RMB fluctuations on the output of the research industry are in the same direction.For example,when the appreciation is carried out,the output of the research target industry has declined,but the degree of influence of different industries is different,among which the textile and garment and leather products manufacturing industries have the greatest impact.In the fourth chapter,combined with the simulation results and the actual situation of China's industrial structure adjustment,relevant suggestions are put forward: Firstly,expand the RMB market basket and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.Secondly,guide the gradual and orderly appreciation of the RMB to promote the optimization of China's industrial structure.Thirdly,the exchange rate policy can be combined with other policy instruments to adjust the three industries structure and the internal structure of the industry.Fourthly,improve the ability of exchange rate risk management in China's real economic sectors.Fifthly,utilize the new trend of international industrial transfer to adjust and optimize China's industrial structure.