Risk Analysis For Large Container Terminal Construction

This paper summaries methods for container handling capacity prediction and then gives suggestions on method selection and related parameters'setting according to the characters of middle/long term prediction. Then, the reliability of each method is assessed based on its mechanism to produce the synthesis weight matrix. At last, this paper uses the Tianjin Port as a case to conduct middle/long term container handling capacity prediction.Multi-factor dynamic product coefficients method is the most mature and widely-used one in all available container handling capacity prediction models. After predicting foreign trade value, predicted container handling capacity can be got by using product coefficients. However, the very first step, setting future foreign exchanging growth rate, is a step which usually lacks solid logical base, leading to low precision in the middle/long term prediction. This paper adopts logistic model to make middle/long term GDP, then solves this logic-lacking problem by using regression model between economic volume and foreign trade value. The middle/long term container handling capacity for the Tianjin Port is conducted as a case. The result and rationales show that logistic model is a more appropriate and advanced method to modify the multi-factor dynamic product coefficients and improve middle/long term prediction's precision.Risk management is a new subject, which was developed in the past twenty years, and starts to be comprehensively applied to all kinds of projects recently. In this paper, thorough study on financing and construction risk of port development was conducted. Purpose of this study was to find out the more effective risk analysis method for container port development.Firstly the common process of risk management was concisely analyzed; then based on the investors'different risk preference, a math's model was set up to measure risk; finally by providing an example, various material risks included in this example was studied up on and the numerical value of them was calculated, and then some measures to avoid risks was offered in virtue of the numerical value of the risks.Then it put the key research on the combination weighting approach as well as the variable weighting approach to emphases on the dominant factor. The importance of hazards in the bottom layer can be appraised objectively by the combination weighting approach while the importance can be emphasized and using the variable weighting approach can enhance the authenticity. This paper checks the foregoing two methods by examples calculation and method comparison. In order to simplify calculation and make the course easily understood, matrix computation was applied in the process and vector was applied as a consequence,being clear at a glance all through this paper.Financing and construction process are two of the most important steps in the container terminal development. Based on the theory study of this paper ,The author use the principle to Tiajin Port east area container terminal financing and construction risk analysis.