Research On Game And Decision Based On The International Transportation Of Shenzhen Port

This paper studies the comprehensive evaluation of theory and methods on competitiveness of the international transfer port in Shenzhen based on the multi-elements and multi competitors'Game theory. Comprehensive competitiveness evaluation method is proposed, and the evaluation index system for international transfer port is established from the perspective of system analysis, the definition of target analysis is also given. Some important indicators such as port throughput and international transfer port forecast method has been investigated; the competitiveness of the international transfer port of comprehensive evaluation theory and methods is studied. The Shenzhen port and the neighboring port competition and competitiveness is studied.First, this paper proposed international transfer port competitive comprehensive evaluation method. It also studies international transfer port for comprehensive evaluation theories and methods, a new international transfer port comprehensive evaluation method - international transfer port competitiveness comprehensive evaluation method. Combining with Shenzhen port practice, international transit port on the comprehensive evaluation of theory and methods of is analyzed, and proposals policy and advice is put forward.Second, this paper constructs the index system of international transfer port comprehensive evaluation. It analyzes the literatures about the port comprehensive evaluation of the pros and cons of indicators, the principles of the choice about international transfer port competitiveness indicators is proposed. 20 indicators are finally selected. The framework of international transfer port competitiveness comprehensive evaluation index system is given.Third, the forecast method of international transfer port is proposed. Through-put of Shenzhen international transfer port is predicted. The paper analyzes the traditional port through-put forecast methods, the application as well restrictions of these methods are also discussed. We also use forecast model such as ARMA and GM (1,1) model to predict national and Shenzhen international transit ports throughput as well as international container transshipment volume.Fourth, the paper uses AHP model to calculate and sort the comprehensive score of competitiveness of each international transfer port. Through the DEA analysis, take the impact elements as a decision-making unit to identify each decision-making unit's relative effectiveness of the decision-making unit and test each other the gap between the ports. from the perspective of the complex network of shipping network analysis on the port, the planning of routes between ports, as well as the relationship between competition and cooperation in decision-making Optimization methods. According to international transfer port competitiveness comprehensive evaluation method Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Nansha port competitive international transfer comprehensive evaluation.