Predictive Analysis Of Port Throughput In Dongjiang Free Trade Of Tianjin Port

On August 31,2006, the State Council officially approved the establishment of Tianjin Dongjiang Bonded Port Area to promote the development and opening of Binhai New Area. On April 21,2015, Tianjin Free Trade Experimental Area, which is adjacent to Binhai New Area was formally established relying on Tianjin port. Dongjiang Free Trade Port will be key point for the development of FTA in the future.Free Trade Port Area is the concept of a special port or port area, which promotes the development of regional and surrounding areas by making use of the preferential treatment such as tariff reductions and free access. FTA and free ports can enjoy duty-free preferential treatment without the supervision of sovereign state’s customs. Various preferential policies will accelerate the throughput growth of free port and it will lead to the increase of harbor transportation pressure. It is essential to choose an adequate method to forecast the port throughput after the establishment of FTA, as to optimize handling capacity and infrastructure.In this paper, the conceptions of FTA and Free Trade Port Area were introduced and the current development situation of FTA domestic and overseas was analyzed. Then the status of Dongjiang Port’s transportation and loading capacity were analyzed. Lots of data was collected including production planning and the container throughput in the last ten years. Simulated plant growth method was used to forecast the container throughput for the next five years, and then according to the changes of container throughput in Shanghai FTA, container throughput of Dongjiang Port after the establishment of Tianjin FTA was calculated. Based on the proportion of container throughput of Dongjiang Port each year in the overall throughput, the predicted value of container throughput of Dongjiang Port is stated. Through the comparison and analysis of the data, it is shown that Dongjiang Port’s existing handling capacity can not meet the growing container handling capacity, it need to be improved.Finally, aiming at functional orientation, infrastructure, the future direction of development and the opportunities and challenges that may arise along with the improvement of throughput, a number of development proposals were put forward such as increasing road extension cords, extension of new modem berth and using drop and pull transportation to transport containers. At last further research was discussed.